Israel is preparing for a consequential national election on October 27, an event that could reshape the country's political future and define the legacy of its longest-serving Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. This vote marks the first election since the Hamas massacre on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war, placing Netanyahu's career and leadership under intense scrutiny.
Netanyahu, who has held the office for a cumulative two decades, has overseen Israel's development into a high-tech economy and a regional military force. However, the upcoming election is framed by many as a referendum on accountability for the events of October 7 and the ongoing costs of the war. For voters under 20, Netanyahu has been a near-constant presence in leadership, aside from a brief period between 2021 and 2022 when a coalition government was in power.
Analysts suggest the central question for voters will be who is best equipped to continue the war effort and address the existential threat posed by Iran and its allies. Gadi Taub, co-host of Tablet’s Israel Update podcast, noted that Netanyahu has consistently advocated for "total victory," contrasting with opposition figures who have expressed a desire to conclude the war earlier.
Eylon Levy, a former spokesperson for the State of Israel, described the election as an opportunity for the country to change course after what he termed a significant disaster. "He doesn’t want to go down in history books as the man on whose watch the Oct. 7 massacre happened; he wants to have a long political career ahead of him and take the really incredible military achievements of the last few years as a credit to his leadership," Levy stated.
The election landscape features a divided political field. Opposition blocs, including a joint slate led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, and a coalition involving Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, are challenging Netanyahu's Likud party. These groups, often collectively referred to as "Rak Lo Bibi" (anyone but Bibi), aim to unseat the incumbent government.
Israel's parliamentary system, where 120 seats in the Knesset are allocated based on proportional representation, often leads to coalition-building after elections, as no single party has historically secured a majority. The electoral threshold for parties to enter the Knesset is approximately 3.25%.
Polls currently suggest a potential for deadlock, which could lead to Netanyahu continuing as caretaker prime minister if no new government can be formed. This follows a period of political instability that saw five elections between 2019 and 2022. The current government is notable for being the first in decades to complete its full term.
The campaign is marked by voter anger over responsibility for the Oct. 7 attacks and the war's societal and economic toll. Key issues include the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the broader regional security concerns, particularly Iran's nuclear program, which is seen as a decisive factor by some commentators.