Republican Mike Rogers has a slight edge over Democratic challenger Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate race, according to a Fox News poll released this week. The survey of registered voters shows Rogers leading 51% to 47%, within the poll's margin of sampling error. The results highlight El-Sayed's difficulties in consolidating support from across the Democratic spectrum after a contentious primary.
Rogers' lead is bolstered by strong Republican unity, with 96% of Republicans supporting him, including 99% of MAGA Republicans and 89% of non-MAGA Republicans. El-Sayed garners 91% support among Democrats, but his backing drops to 69% among non-DSA Democrats and independents, compared to 98% among self-described Democratic Socialists of America supporters.
This dynamic is crucial for Democrats in Michigan, a swing state where they aim to retain a seat held by retiring Sen. Gary Peters as part of their broader effort to regain Senate control. The poll suggests that El-Sayed's more progressive policy positions and past controversial statements may be creating headwinds.
Chris Anderson, a Democratic pollster and strategist who worked on the Fox News poll, noted that El-Sayed is "clearly underperforming in some groups" and that "damage done from the primary" needs addressing. He added that El-Sayed "needs to bring home Democrats" and convince voters, though Anderson believes there is "favorable ground for him to be playing on despite the concerns that a lot of voters hold."
El-Sayed, an epidemiologist and former Wayne County Health Department director, unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2018. His platform includes support for Medicare-for-all, calls to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and criticism of Israel's actions in Gaza, which he has characterized as "genocide." He has also pledged not to accept PAC donations and has been endorsed by progressive figures like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Republicans have framed El-Sayed as too extreme for Michigan. Rogers, a former U.S. representative, has sought to appeal to Democrats uncomfortable with El-Sayed's stances. He has stated that he has unified the Republican Party and is preparing for a significant challenge in the general election.
In a campaign video, Rogers directly addressed Democrats he believed felt they had no alternative, telling them they still had hope and a "home" with his campaign. El-Sayed, however, expressed confidence in his ability to unite the party, emphasizing the shared risks posed by former President Donald Trump and Rogers, and stated his intention to welcome all voters, regardless of their primary choice.
Anderson anticipates that El-Sayed will likely improve his standing with the Democratic base as Election Day approaches, particularly as voters face a clear choice between a Democratic and Republican candidate in a highly partisan environment.
In the gubernatorial race, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a more moderate Democrat, leads Republican Rep. John James 52% to 47%, indicating stronger party unity among Democrats in that contest.