Marine Le Pen, a twice-convicted politician, is positioned as the frontrunner in the upcoming French presidential election, according to a recent opinion poll.
Last week, an appeal court in Paris upheld Le Pen's conviction for embezzling approximately €2.8 million (£2.4 million) in European Parliament funds. The conviction stems from a scheme where funds intended for parliamentary assistants were allegedly used to pay National Rally party employees between 2004 and 2016. Prosecutors argued that some hired individuals had minimal or no active role in the European Parliament.
Despite the upheld conviction, the 57-year-old leader of the far-right National Rally party stated her intention to continue her bid for the presidency, aiming to succeed incumbent Emmanuel Macron. An Elabe poll conducted for French media outlets BFM TV and La Tribune Dimanche shows Le Pen securing 34 percent of the vote in the first round of elections. This level of support would comfortably place her in a second-round runoff.
The poll suggests Le Pen's closest rivals are polling between 14 and 16 percent. In a hypothetical head-to-head contest with far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, Le Pen is projected to win over 67 percent of the vote. The poll also indicated that Edouard Philippe, a centrist former prime minister under Macron, would receive 48 percent of the vote and lose a runoff against Le Pen.
Following the court's decision, Le Pen announced her campaign would commence immediately, stating she would pursue all legal avenues to contest the embezzlement conviction, including an appeal to France's highest court. She had previously indicated she might withdraw from the race if required to wear an electronic monitoring tag, as she would not feel "totally free" to campaign.
The appeal court's ruling confirmed her guilt but stipulated she could stand for the presidency while wearing a tag. This order is currently suspended pending the outcome of her further appeal, expected early next year, which coincides with the presidential election scheduled for April, with a potential runoff in May.
Following the verdict, speculation had arisen that Le Pen might cede the National Rally candidacy to the party's 30-year-old president, Jordan Bardella. However, Le Pen affirmed her commitment to her presidential aspirations. Bardella expressed his "absolute" and unwavering support for Le Pen.
The poll results highlight the possibility of a convicted individual running for and potentially winning the French presidency. Marine Tondelier, leader of the French Greens, commented that in a "normal world" with "the slightest shred of morality," Le Pen would withdraw from the race, stating that one cannot "decently stand for election after having been convicted in this way for misappropriating public funds."