Mali is grappling with its most severe security crisis in years as militant groups and separatist rebels have joined forces, significantly increasing attacks against the nation's military. This new alliance between the al-Qaida-linked Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) represents a critical development in a conflict that has destabilized the region for decades.

Analysts note that this collaboration has led to some of the most substantial attacks Malian security forces and their allies have faced in years. In April, for the first time in a decade, rebels and separatists launched coordinated, large-scale assaults across the country. Earlier this month, the allied groups ambushed a Malian military convoy, resulting in the capture or death of dozens of soldiers and intensifying pressure on the ruling military junta.

Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), an independent conflict monitor, reveals a stark increase in fatalities from militant attacks. The first seven months of this year saw a 35% rise, with 3,435 deaths compared to 2,546 in the same period of 2024. Heni Nsaibia, a senior analyst for West Africa at ACLED, stated that both JNIM and FLA recognize the advantage of mutual cooperation, as they function as "force multipliers" for each other. Nsaibia added that both groups share the objective of defeating a "common enemy," which they identify as the Malian armed forces and their partner, Russia's Africa Corps paramilitary group.

Mohamed Elmaouloud Ramadane, spokesperson for the FLA, described the relationship between the groups as a "form of tactical coordination" focused on military operations. He indicated that after achieving independence for northern Mali, the communities would then decide on the application of Sharia law.

The current phase of the Mali conflict began in 2012 with a Tuareg rebellion in the north, which subsequently created an opening for jihadist groups. This ignited a cycle of violence across Mali and the broader Sahel region, a semi-arid zone extending from North Africa to West Africa that has become one of the world's most dangerous areas.

Malian soldiers seized control of the civilian government in 2020, citing the escalating security crisis. This event triggered a series of coups across the Sahel, a region identified by the Institute for Economics and Peace as the deadliest globally, accounting for up to half of all terror-related deaths worldwide.

Analysts suggest that the period of military rule has seen a deterioration in the security situation compared to previous civilian administrations, with armed groups expanding their presence throughout the country and the wider Sahel.

Key Groups in the Conflict

JNIM

JNIM is considered the most formidable armed group in the Sahel and a significant al-Qaida affiliate globally. Formed in 2017 through the merger of four al-Qaida-affiliated groups in Mali, its initial stated aim was to expel French forces who were assisting Malian troops in counter-terrorism efforts. Led by Iyad Ag Ghaly, a former Tuareg rebel and Malian diplomat, JNIM operates across northern, southern, western, and central Mali. The group previously imposed a fuel import blockade on the country, disrupting supplies to the capital, Bamako. JNIM's influence extends to neighboring Niger and Burkina Faso, with efforts to expand into coastal West African nations. The group has compelled the Malian military to spread its forces across wider territories, straining its operational capacity. JNIM has also begun positioning itself as a viable alternative authority to the government, exercising de facto control in areas with limited state presence, according to Beatrice Bianchi, an adviser for the Sahel-Sahara Security Strategies Centre.

FLA

Formed in 2024, the FLA is advocating for the independence of northern Mali. It represents the latest iteration of Tuareg separatist movements that have emerged in the region. The group's origins trace back to the 1960s, following Mali's independence from France, when the northern region felt marginalized by the central government. In April 2012, a coalition of Tuareg rebel groups declared independence, sparking a rebellion that coincided with the rise of Islamic militants. A peace accord signed in Algeria in 2015 between the Malian government and the rebels brought a temporary end to hostilities. However, in 2024, the Malian junta withdrew from these accords amidst rising tensions, leading to a resurgence of conflict. Several rebel group officials subsequently united to establish the FLA.

Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP)

The Sahel-based arm of the Islamic State group, ISSP, was formed by defectors from al-Mourabitoun, one of the groups that merged to form JNIM. ISSP is less prominent in Mali compared to JNIM, primarily operating in the Menaka region bordering Niger. The Islamic State group officially recognized ISSP's allegiance in 2022. Unlike JNIM's efforts to present itself as a governance alternative, ISSP's stated objective is to establish an Islamic caliphate and it is known for its coercive tactics with civilians. Bianchi notes that while both organizations are responsible for significant violence against civilians, JNIM typically combines coercion with attempts to gain local acceptance, whereas the Islamic State relies more heavily on overt violence and intimidation. Competition for territory and differing jihadi ideologies, mirroring the global rivalry between al-Qaida and the Islamic State, often lead to clashes between these two groups.

Africa Corps and Allied Groups

The Africa Corps is a Russian paramilitary organization that succeeded the Wagner Group. Following their rise to power, the Malian military junta expelled French forces in 2022, citing national sovereignty and the deteriorating security situation. Mali then shifted its alliances away from Western partners towards Russia, initially engaging with the Wagner Group, which acted as a Russian diplomatic proxy. Russia has since replaced Wagner with the Africa Corps, which operates under the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Africa Corps collaborates with the Malian army and has faced accusations of severe human rights violations.

The government also receives support from other smaller ethnic auxiliary groups, including the Dozo militias, which have transitioned from former hunters to militarized units, and certain Tuareg groups such as the Imghad Tuareg Self-Defense Group and Allies (GATIA) and the Movement for the Salvation of Azawad (MSA) in the Menaka region. This support can be inconsistent; for example, Dan Na Ambassagou, a militia group that targets Fulanis, accusing them of harboring Islamist elements, was once supported by the government but has since been denounced.