Rep. Mike Lawler, R-NY, is holding a narrow 5-point lead over his Democratic challenger, Cait Conley, in the latest poll for New York's 17th Congressional District. The survey, conducted by co/efficient and released Thursday, shows Lawler with 50% of the vote compared to Conley's 45%.
The poll indicates Lawler also holds a more significant advantage among independent voters, with 54% supporting him versus 39% for Conley. The survey has a margin of error of 2.7%.
This race in the Hudson Valley is considered one of the most competitive House contests in the country. Cook Political Report rates the district as a toss-up, while Fox News' rankings recently shifted the district to the "lean Dem" column.
Lawler's campaign expressed confidence, with spokesperson Ciro Riccardi stating, "We anticipate Mike will be ‘surging’ past Cait on Election Night as he heads towards a third term of delivering for Hudson Valley voters." Riccardi also commented on Conley's background, referencing her work after serving on the National Security Council under President Joe Biden.
Conley's campaign, in a statement from spokesperson Maddy Rosen, acknowledged the close contest. "Though the choice seems obvious, Cait is not taking a single vote for granted," Rosen said. "While Mike Lawler spends his days cozying up to the corporations and lobbyists backing his campaign, Cait is crisscrossing the district talking to working families about the soaring utility rates and healthcare cuts they’ve experienced on Mike Lawler’s watch."
Lawler previously defeated former Rep. Mondaire Jones by six points in 2024, despite the district voting for Kamala Harris in the same election. The suburban district encompasses parts of Westchester, Putnam, and Dutchess counties.