Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass received a significant boost on the prediction market Kalshi on Election Day, with her odds of reelection rising from 57.6% to 75% between 1 p.m. and 4:30 p.m. Tuesday. This surge represents an increase of more than 21 percentage points in a race that recent polling indicated was deadlocked.
Bass is currently in a close contest with Socialist challenger Nithya Raman. In late October, both candidates stood at 40%, with 20% of voters remaining undecided. The shift in the prediction market occurred as traders monitored Election Day turnout, with precinct-level participation potentially indicating which candidate was gaining momentum.
Heavy turnout in liberal strongholds could favor Raman, while stronger participation among older, establishment voters might benefit Bass. Prediction market fluctuations can be influenced by even minor new information in a tight race.
Voting centers opened Tuesday morning and were scheduled to close at 8 p.m. PST. Initial results are anticipated after polls close, but the close nature of the election may lead to a delay in determining a definitive winner, potentially lasting days or even weeks.
The U.S. Justice Department has deployed federal election monitors in the Los Angeles area as part of a nationwide effort to ensure election integrity. This move has drawn criticism from California Governor Gavin Newsom and Mayor Bass, who have suggested it could be an attempt to intimidate voters.