Former Vice President Kamala Harris has established a significant lead over California Governor Gavin Newsom and other potential candidates in early polling for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. Multiple recent surveys suggest Harris holds a comfortable advantage, indicating an early edge in what remains a fluid prospective race.
A poll conducted by Echelon Insights between July 9 and 13 showed Harris leading Newsom by 7 percentage points. Earlier, a Quantus Insights poll from July 3 to 7 placed Harris 18 points ahead, capturing 35% of the vote share.
These results continue a trend observed since late May, with Harris consistently appearing in the top spot. The last poll to not show Harris leading was an Emerson College survey from May 24–25, which had former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg ahead by 2 points over Newsom. In that survey, Newsom garnered 16% support, while Harris trailed with 10%.
Since that Emerson poll, Newsom has typically ranked second behind Harris, with his support generally falling between 15% and 20%. While early presidential polls are often seen as reflecting name recognition rather than definitive outcomes, they can influence perceptions of a candidate's viability.
Harris has previously expressed interest in a White House run, having been a contender in the 2020 election cycle. Her recent outreach to figures like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani suggests efforts to bolster support within the progressive wing of the Democratic party, a key demographic for any national campaign.
Newsom has largely focused on positioning himself as a vocal critic of former President Donald Trump. Some of his policy stances, such as advocating for a national billionaire tax while opposing a state-level version, have been interpreted as attempts to appeal to the far-left base and potentially close the gap with Harris. GOP strategist Rob Stutzman commented to CalMatters that such maneuvering might not resonate as authentically as other candidates' platforms.