Strikes by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia targeting Iran-allied fighters in Iraq have placed the Iraqi government in a precarious position, intensifying its long-standing challenge of balancing relations between Washington and Tehran.
These retaliatory actions, which hit bases of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) — a coalition of armed groups close to Iran officially part of Iraq's security forces but often operating autonomously — followed accusations that Iraqi militias used drones to attack Saudi oil facilities. The PMF groups have also targeted U.S. forces stationed in Iraq at the government's invitation.
Iraq's government has set a deadline of the end of September for non-state armed groups to disarm. However, some of the most powerful factions, particularly those closely aligned with Iran, have indicated no intention to comply.
The PMF, which largely consists of Shiite groups, became allies of convenience with the U.S.-led coalition during the fight against the Islamic State group after its seizure of Iraqi territory in 2014. The groups have roots in the Shiite insurgency that followed the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. In 2016, Iraq officially designated the PMF as an "independent military formation" within its armed forces, though many factions retain significant autonomy.
Since the U.S. and Israel initiated conflict with Iran on February 28, Iraqi militias have conducted regular attacks on U.S. military bases, diplomatic facilities, and energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia has specifically blamed Iran-backed Iraqi militias for drone attacks on Monday and Tuesday that targeted petroleum facilities. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group for Iran-backed factions, denied involvement, characterizing the Saudi claims as "fabrications" intended to justify their own inability to respond to strikes in Yemen. The group suggested that Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels were responsible.
The PMF reported that the U.S.-Saudi strikes resulted in at least 20 fatalities and 32 injuries among its members. Iraq's National Security Council condemned the strikes, stating they killed and injured "a number of innocent people" and undermined the Iraqi state, asserting that these actions occurred while Baghdad was actively investigating and addressing U.S. and Saudi concerns. The council reiterated Iraq's commitment to ensuring the withdrawal of U.S. forces and consolidating arms under state control.
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, a political newcomer, has vowed to disarm non-state groups, arguing they will have no justification to retain their weapons after the scheduled September 30 U.S. troop withdrawal. Al-Zaidi, who had been slated to visit Saudi Arabia, saw his trip postponed indefinitely following the escalation of hostilities. His premiership, which began earlier this year after months of political deadlock, is supported by a coalition of Iran-allied Shiite parties but also received the endorsement of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Iraq faces a dilemma similar to Lebanon, where a government under U.S. backing is pressured to disarm the Iran-backed Hezbollah. Aggressive moves could incite internal conflict, while inaction risks U.S. disapproval. While some PMF factions might be integrated into the armed forces, others, such as Kataib Hezbollah, have refused. Experts suggest that the disarmament process is likely to take months or years, and groups viewing themselves as part of Iran's regional network may resist yielding their arms as long as the U.S.-Iran conflict persists.