Speculation is mounting in Tehran regarding the whereabouts and condition of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, who has been largely absent from public view since assuming the role on March 8. This absence has fueled rumors that the Islamic Republic may be concealing the truth about who is truly leading the nation.
Khamenei reportedly sustained injuries, including a disfigured face and leg injuries, during joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, on February 28. Despite his official accession to leadership being announced on state television months ago, he has not been seen or heard from publicly, not even by his ministers. His extended absence includes missing his father's funeral on July 5, an event where three of his brothers were present.
Recent events have further intensified these rumors. Khamenei was reportedly set to host a wake for his predecessor and father, an event attended by thousands of prominent political figures and several of Ali Khamenei's sons, yet Mojtaba was notably absent. London-based outlet IranWire reports that not a single cabinet member has met with Mojtaba since he took power five months ago. A source close to the cabinet of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed the lack of meetings and described Khamenei's physical condition as "very poor," stating they "would not be surprised if we heard news of his martyrdom soon."
Some reports suggest Khamenei may have been left brain-dead by the strikes. Earlier in the month, an appeal circulated on an Iranian messaging service, urging prayers for Khamenei's health and suggesting the sacrifice of a sheep on his behalf, a tradition indicating serious health concerns. The appeal reportedly stated Khamenei's "life is in danger."
Despite the widespread speculation, official statements have attempted to counter the rumors. The Supreme Leader's office released a statement on August 9 claiming Khamenei had met with President Pezeshkian at the end of July. Following this alleged meeting, a promise was made to release footage of Khamenei in the future, including videos of him in public and with military commanders. During this purported August meeting, Khamenei reportedly issued decrees, promoted generals, and made changes within the National Security Council. However, President Pezeshkian also acknowledged in early August that communicating with Khamenei was "very difficult," even as he claimed meetings were increasing.
Several theories about Khamenei's status are circulating. One theory, promoted by Iranian officials, suggests he is alive and recovering from his injuries, directing affairs from a bunker. Another theory posits he has fled to Russia, while a third, considered more plausible by some, is that he is incapacitated, with his public statements being drafted by others, possibly Ahmad Vahidi, commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guard.
Khamenei's disappearance has created a power vacuum, leaving Iran's 13-person National Security Council to manage the country's affairs. The council is reportedly divided on the direction of the war with the United States, with President Pezeshkian and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf favoring an end to hostilities, while General Ahmad Vahidi of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps holds a more hardline stance. This internal division impacts Iran's engagement in regional conflicts and its international relations, including its approach to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as its involvement in cyber-attacks against Western targets.