Iranian leaders are projecting a unified stance on their war strategy, emphasizing resilience against the United States and its allies. However, beneath this surface of solidarity lies a significant divergence of opinion on the ultimate objectives of the conflict.
One faction, comprised of ultra-hardliners from the "Paydari" movement, advocates for unconditional victory and opposes any negotiation with the U.S. These ideologues are focused on reinforcing the Islamic Republic's societal control. In contrast, a camp aligned with President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf views military pressure as a tactic to achieve a negotiated settlement with the U.S. This group is also motivated by concerns over the war's economic impact on Iran and the need to accommodate social changes.
An advisor to Qalibaf, Mahdi Mohammadi, stated on Telegram that "Negotiation is a political tool and a complement to military action to force the enemy to a point of compulsion and extract real concessions." This open rivalry within the leadership suggests a struggle for influence over Iran's post-war future, particularly as the position of the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, remains unclear.
Despite internal disagreements, a ceasefire deal reached with the U.S. in April received broad support within Iran's Supreme National Security Council, with 12 out of 13 members approving it, including senior figures from the Revolutionary Guard and the military. The sole dissenting vote is widely attributed to Saeed Jalili, a prominent Paydari movement figure. However, the ceasefire has since eroded amidst ongoing strikes and Iran's actions regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Frustration also stems from the non-materialization of promised financial benefits, such as the release of frozen assets, leading to the reinstatement of the American blockade.
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, noted that without tangible benefits from the deal, "there's no serious division" regarding the response. He explained that some leaders believe President Donald Trump "only understands the language of force, and therefore, they would have to gain the upper hand in order to compel him to deliver."
The funeral for the former supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, highlighted the Paydari movement's influence, with crowds calling for revenge and welcoming Jalili, while Pezeshkian faced insults. The ultra-hardliners have utilized nightly rallies and state television (IRIB) to broadcast opposition to negotiations, portraying Iran as on the path to total victory and denouncing compromise with the U.S.
This narrative control has led to open rifts. State television has cut off live broadcasts of Qalibaf discussing negotiations and of Pezeshkian speaking about renewed talks before Khamenei's death. The president's office has condemned state television for "censoring" officials, indicating a significant divergence between the government and the media apparatus.
Hard-line factions have also demonstrated influence through actions such as the brief closure of cafes in Tehran popular with women who flouted mandatory veiling laws. Mohamad Ali Abtahi, a reformist cleric, suggested these closures signaled the influence of "religious extremist parties."
While Jalili's supporters are considered a minority, they wield considerable influence due to financial resources, power, and established connections within the bureaucracy and the Revolutionary Guard, according to Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University.
The more pragmatic camp argues that addressing public discontent over the economy, political repression, and social issues is crucial for maintaining unity. Iran's economy faces challenges including a sliding currency, spiraling inflation, and rising unemployment. A final agreement with the U.S. could potentially unlock significant financial benefits through the lifting of sanctions and the release of billions in frozen assets.
Signs of impatience with the war have emerged, including a petition signed by over 250 public figures calling for peace and warning of the conflict's costs. The war's domestic toll has been described by a reformist party as "undermining internal social cohesion," though this was met with criticism from a news agency close to the Revolutionary Guard.
President Pezeshkian's son and advisor, Youssef Pezeshkian, posted messages emphasizing the need to balance military objectives with the weak economy, stating that Iran has "been prevented from growing and has suffered greatly. It has become sick."
Ultimately, the jockeying for power is linked to the uncertainty surrounding the new supreme leader. Abtahi noted that Mojtaba Khamenei's views are not yet fully known, leading to speculation about whether he might be more radical or open to moderate change than his father. The supreme leader's position could serve as a check on extremist factions, but the potential for confrontation with these groups remains a concern for the future.