The true state of Iran's leadership is under scrutiny as Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen publicly since his father's death and his own purported succession.
Mojtaba Khamenei was named Iran's new supreme leader on March 8, following the death of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28. He was reportedly injured in the attack, with sources close to his inner circle telling Reuters that the blast disfigured his face and caused serious leg injuries. Despite his official title, Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared publicly since his accession was announced over five months ago. He was notably absent from his father's funeral on July 5.
David Patrikarakos, speaking on the Daily Mail's Deep Dive podcast and citing Western intelligence sources, outlined three prevailing theories regarding Mojtaba Khamenei's current status and whereabouts. The first theory posits that he is alive and actively leading the country from a secure location, a narrative reportedly promoted by Iranian officials. President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated that Khamenei is recovering, but Patrikarakos dismisses this as unlikely given the circumstances.
The second theory suggests that Mojtaba Khamenei may have fled to Russia, a country known for sheltering foreign figures. However, Patrikarakos finds this improbable, noting that Iranian leaders typically do not flee their country, citing the elder Khamenei's death in Iran as an example.
The third and most plausible theory, according to Patrikarakos, is that Mojtaba Khamenei is severely incapacitated or barely alive, with his public statements being drafted by another individual. Patrikarakos believes the most likely candidate to be wielding significant power is Ahmad Vahidi, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The IRGC, established after the 1979 revolution, has grown into Iran's most powerful institution, exerting control over military operations and a substantial portion of the economy. Patrikarakos described Vahidi as a hardliner deeply integrated into the country's military and political structures. He noted Vahidi's alleged role in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, for which he is reportedly one of five Iranians sought by authorities. Patrikarakos suggests that Vahidi's influence makes him the de facto power in Tehran, especially if Mojtaba Khamenei is unable to govern effectively.
