Iran's de facto Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has been absent from public view for over five months, a period marked by intense speculation and rumor regarding his condition and control of the country. Khamenei, who assumed leadership after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike in Tehran on February 28, has not made any public appearances or released recordings since his appointment on March 9.
Public Absence and Unanswered Questions
Mojtaba Khamenei's disappearance from the public eye began shortly after his ascension. He did not attend his father's funeral on July 4, with the regime citing "security concerns." Furthermore, he broke a 30-year tradition by not delivering the customary New Year's address for Nowruz on March 20. Instead, a statement attributed to him was read on state television, accompanied by a still photograph.
This prolonged absence has led to three main theories circulating among intelligence and security circles. One theory suggests he is alive and operating from a secure, undisclosed location within Iran, possibly injured but still in command. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated that Khamenei's "interaction level with our dear Supreme Leader is increasing day by day," a claim met with skepticism given the lack of visual evidence.
Another theory posits that Khamenei may have fled to Russia, a country known to harbor foreign leaders in difficult circumstances. However, this is considered unlikely by many observers who believe Iranian leaders are less inclined to flee. The most probable scenario, according to some analysts, is that Khamenei is severely incapacitated, possibly in a coma, and unable to fulfill his duties. Statements attributed to him are reportedly drafted by Ahmad Vahidi, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and other senior generals.
The lack of verifiable information has led to Mojtaba Khamenei being nicknamed "The Cardboard Leader." The regime's attempts to counter rumors with AI-generated videos depicting Khamenei giving speeches and interacting with deceased figures like Qasem Soleimani have inadvertently fueled further suspicion, suggesting a lack of genuine footage.
The Shifting Power Dynamics
Amidst the uncertainty surrounding Mojtaba Khamenei, power within Iran is widely believed to have consolidated within the IRGC. This military and intelligence organization has long held significant influence and is described as an economic and political empire embedded in various sectors of the country. A former Mossad official suggests that power has shifted to a junta comprising the IRGC leadership, including Vahidi, and other key figures within the security establishment, effectively marginalizing the clerical leadership.
Journalist Negar Mojtahedi points to factionalism within Iran, noting a divide between the IRGC camp and a diplomatic/governmental camp led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Pezeshkian. Araghchi's public statement about never having met Mojtaba Khamenei is seen as a potential signal of distancing himself from the embattled leader.
Rumors and Public Indifference
Beyond the speculation about his whereabouts and fitness to rule, persistent rumors suggest Mojtaba Khamenei is gay. These allegations, which have been amplified by figures like former U.S. President Donald Trump, describe a long-term relationship and past incidents. However, these rumors have reportedly had little traction within Iran. Many Iranians appear indifferent to Khamenei's personal life or even his existence, viewing the situation as a bitter joke. The focus remains on the daily hardships imposed by the regime, regardless of who is perceived to be in charge.
Intelligence agencies, particularly Mossad, are reportedly relying on human intelligence, or "Humint," and long-standing networks of agents within Iran to gather information. Bribes, communication intercepts, and hacking of national infrastructure are being employed to ascertain Khamenei's status. The current objective is not necessarily to eliminate him, but simply to confirm if he is alive and capable of leading.