The 60-day cease-fire deal in Iran has quietly expired without scheduled talks for a new agreement, signaling a new phase in the conflict and diminishing hopes for voluntary regime change in Tehran.
President Trump asserted that the Strait of Hormuz would remain under American control, displaying a map labeling the waterway as "new U.S. territory." Iran disputed this claim, with a deputy foreign minister calling it "delusional" and stating the strait would be "opened and closed under Iran’s command."
This stalemate suggests that while no settlement is in sight, the possibility of a voluntary change in leadership in Iran appears unlikely. This prospect is a difficult realization for both the United States and Israel, who may have reconciled themselves to the current leadership remaining in power despite the toll Iran has sustained.
While regime change was not an explicitly stated goal, both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly harbored hopes for it. Discussions between their staffs explored the possibility of leveraging Kurdish fighters as ground forces and believed that Iranian civilians might rise up to overthrow the government if given an opportunity. However, reports suggest there was never a detailed plan shared with the Israel Defense Forces to facilitate such an uprising.
The initial assumption of inevitable leadership change was fueled by an attack in February that reportedly killed as many as 40 top Iranian leaders. Both Trump and Netanyahu initially stated that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was among the dead, though Iran later confirmed the deaths of many top commanders. This targeted action indicated a goal of eliminating the ruling mullahs in hopes of ushering in a new generation of reformers and ending Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons and its export of the Islamic revolution.
The Iranian government had openly declared its aims to eliminate Israel and the United States, labeling them the "Little Satan" and the "Big Satan." Trump and Netanyahu agreed that Iran's ballistic missile development and its pursuit of nuclear weapons were unacceptable.
Buildup to Action
Despite provocations, Trump had exercised restraint during negotiations. A shift occurred after Iranian officials claimed they possessed enough enriched uranium for multiple nuclear weapons and insisted on their right to enrichment. This, coupled with the regime's violent crackdown on domestic protesters demanding economic reforms, led Trump to lose hope in a negotiated settlement. He posted on social media in January, urging protesters to "take over their institutions."
Following a significant U.S. military buildup, Trump publicly acknowledged that regime change might be the only path to ensuring Iran abandoned its nuclear ambitions and regional dominance. However, six months later, despite extensive bombardments, the leadership has merely seen changes in names and titles. The new leadership, including the late ayatollah's son Mojtaba Khamenei, has maintained the hardline agenda of domestic repression and regional influence. Public executions of dissidents have resumed, and groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis remain active in their opposition to Israel and the U.S.
Hardliners Remain Firm
A recent analysis by the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies suggests that the recent governmental reshuffle in Iran is more akin to "musical chairs among regime veterans" than a renewal. The report highlights that Mojtaba Khamenei appointed officials to key posts, including heads of war and internal security, who possess records of anti-Americanism and domestic repression. The analysis concludes that Washington faces the same uncompromising hardliners, albeit in different positions, and warns against mistaking internal rivalries for an opportunity, as these factions remain aligned on policies threatening the U.S. and its allies.