Iran's military announced Monday that it fired warning shots at two vessels attempting to illegally cross the Strait of Hormuz, an action that coincided with traffic in the vital waterway dropping to its lowest level in five weeks. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps stated that the ships, whose identities were not disclosed, had turned off their tracking transponders, according to Iranian state media.
This incident occurs amid a backdrop of recent exchanges of fire between U.S. and Iranian military assets. Iran asserts its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world's oil is transported. Data from maritime analytics firm Kpler indicated that only 14 ships transited the strait on Sunday, a significant decrease from earlier in the summer.
Among the vessels that did navigate the strait were a Very Large Crude Carrier carrying two million barrels of Iranian oil and a Kuwaiti tanker with 500,000 barrels of crude. Kpler reported that six ships used Iran's designated passage, while only one vessel followed the route recommended by the International Maritime Organization.
Prior to the recent escalations, dozens of ships typically crossed the Strait of Hormuz daily with their transponders active, with traffic peaking at around 70 ships in late June. However, the current situation has seen a return to ships disabling their tracking systems and employing "shadow fleet" tactics to transit the waterway, a strategy reminiscent of previous periods of heightened conflict.
Kpler noted that half of the ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday did so by turning off their tracking systems. This trend is expected to intensify following the U.S. announcement of reimposed blockades on Iranian ports, which is projected to further reduce traffic to a minimal number of vessels. Analysts from ship broker Gibson suggested that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to tighter global oil supplies, higher prices, and significant market volatility.