Hurricane Lowell has intensified into a Category 5 storm, marking the first such powerful hurricane in the Central Pacific since 2018. The storm is currently churning in the Central Pacific alongside Category 4 Hurricane Karina, with multiple tropical systems developing in the region. While there are no immediate threats to Hawaii, conditions could change.
Lowell officially strengthened into a major hurricane late Tuesday night, rapidly intensifying overnight before being upgraded to Category 5 status Wednesday evening, according to the National Hurricane Center. Both Lowell and Karina are tracking generally westward, and their interaction remains a key point of interest for forecasters.
Karina is being steered westward by a high-pressure system to its north. If this ridge strengthens, it could influence Karina's track to be more southerly, potentially bringing it closer to Hawaii. Lowell is also expected to maintain a westward path in the coming days, guided by high pressure to its north. However, future tracking becomes more complex, with models showing increasing disagreement on when and how sharply Lowell will turn northwest. The proximity of Karina could influence Lowell's steering patterns and potentially cap its development if they interact closely.
Currently, Lowell is projected to pass south of Hawaii before potentially turning north. This forecast remains subject to change due to the numerous variables involved.
Elsewhere in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Marie continues to develop off the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are favorable for further intensification. Moisture from Marie is being monitored for potential impacts on California early next week, with a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk anticipated for southern Arizona, including Phoenix and Tucson, on Friday. The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring a new area of low pressure off the coast of southwestern Mexico, which has a 20% chance of development over the next seven days.
The current surge in Pacific activity is attributed to an ongoing El Niño pattern, which is fueling increased storm development across the basin. The last Category 5 storm to form in the Central Pacific basin was Hurricane Walaka in October 2018.