Houthi Attacks Escalate Global Oil Threat Amidst US Ally Discord
Rebel group seizes key strait and targets Saudi pipeline, driving oil prices up as internal Middle East conflicts weaken a united front.
The Iran-backed Houthi rebels have emerged as a significant threat to global oil supply following recent attacks in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, exacerbated by internal disputes among United States allies in the Gulf. The group has reportedly gained control of the critical Bab al-Mandeb Strait and is accused of orchestrating a strike on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, a disruption expected to last for weeks.
The attacks have already impacted oil prices, with a barrel of crude reaching $108. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is a vital shipping lane, and its control by the Houthis poses a substantial risk to oil flow from Saudi Arabia, the world's second-largest crude supplier. This waterway had become a primary export route for the kingdom after Iran disrupted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Now, Saudi Arabia's main alternative is the Suez Canal, which significantly lengthens tanker journeys.
The Houthi escalation follows a period of fragile peace in Yemen, where a truce had been in place since 2022 between the rebels and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government. However, a dispute that erupted in December between Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates-backed groups fractured the anti-Houthi alliance. Reports indicate that Saudi forces bombed weapons destined for UAE-backed groups, prompting Abu Dhabi to withdraw from the conflict entirely. This internal friction proved particularly damaging as UAE-backed forces had controlled Perim Island, strategically located within the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Following the withdrawal of UAE support, Houthi forces rapidly advanced, seizing control of Perim Island and key Yemeni ports along the coast. This positions the rebels to threaten any Saudi vessels traversing the 20-mile-wide strait. The pressure to respond to this evolving threat has largely fallen on Saudi Arabia, which has faced criticism for its perceived slow reaction.
Reports suggest that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sought military aid from the US, but President Trump indicated a reluctance to engage in new offensive actions. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's crude exports have already seen a notable decrease, with exports from its Red Sea port dropping by nearly half last month. The attack on the East-West Pipeline has further impacted reserves, leaving the kingdom with only an estimated five to seven days of export capacity available at its port of Yanbu, according to industry sources.