U.S. consumers are experiencing a notable increase in toy prices, with a 6.6% rise in the last year, according to recent consumer inflation data. This surge, occurring as shoppers prepare for the holiday season, is attributed to a combination of lingering effects from former President Donald Trump's tariff policies and escalating energy costs.
Products that rely on both overseas manufacturing and petroleum in their production processes are also seeing price hikes. The toy industry, with a significant portion of its products manufactured in China, remains susceptible to the trade policies enacted during the Trump administration. Additionally, many toys are made from plastics derived from fossil fuels, making them vulnerable to price increases driven by higher oil costs, exacerbated by global conflicts.
David Silverman, senior director at Fitch Ratings, noted that these dual factors are contributing to the price increases. "The impact from the Iran conflict on commodity costs and shipping costs will certainly persist for the next several quarters," he stated.
While prices for apparel and footwear also rose in September, the increase in toy prices was more pronounced. Toy prices alone saw a 4.2% seasonally adjusted increase from August.
During his presidency, Donald Trump acknowledged in April 2025 that his tariff policies could lead to higher consumer prices, a statement that drew criticism when he suggested that children might have to choose between fewer toys. Since then, polls indicate a decline in his approval ratings on economic issues, with a Reuters/Ipsos poll showing only 21% of voters approving of his handling of cost-of-living issues.
Tariffs on Chinese goods have seen some reduction since the initial rates imposed by the Trump administration, which reached 145% before falling to 30% by May 2025. An agreement in late September between the U.S. and China to reduce tariffs on $30 billion each of imported and exported goods is also in place.
However, the current prices reflect the impact of earlier, higher tariff rates, according to Jay Foreman, CEO of Basic Fun. "Tariffs add a noticeable cost to toys and other goods," Foreman explained. "Reducing them now will over time lower the price of toys as long as other global issues subside, like the various wars that are pushing up fuel and raw material costs."
Major toy manufacturers are also experiencing these pressures. Barbie maker Mattel reported "moderate inflationary pressures associated with events in the Middle East," and noted that tariff-related costs had impacted its profit margins. Hasbro also reported absorbing "higher input costs." Mattel and Hasbro did not immediately respond to requests for comment on their pricing strategies in light of these economic factors.