Heat Dome Fuels Relentless Storms and Flash Flood Threat Across Midwest and Plains
Millions remain under a flash flood watch as a stalled weather pattern delivers continuous thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.
A persistent heat dome over the Southeast is fueling a prolonged period of severe storms across the Midwest and Central Plains, extending a flash flood threat through Sunday.
Millions of people are currently under a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood threat, according to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center. Widespread rainfall of 3–5 inches is expected across affected areas, with some localized regions anticipating up to 8 inches. These storms, carrying deep tropical moisture, are circulating around the western flank of the heat dome, creating a week-long pattern of intense rain rates.
The initial storms began earlier in the week, causing flooding in parts of Western Iowa, where rivers and creeks in Cass County overflowed their banks. The continued rainfall is exacerbating the flood risk due to saturated soil conditions.
On Thursday, the heaviest rain is anticipated across South Dakota, identified as a primary area of concern for flash flooding. Forecasts suggest 2–4 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, particularly in western and central South Dakota, before the system moves eastward toward the I-90 corridor and the Sioux Falls area.
The flash flood threat extends from southeastern Wyoming through South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa. Severe storms could also develop over Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa on Friday, with heavy rain projected for southern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin, impacting cities like Minneapolis and Milwaukee.
By Saturday, the focus of the flood threat is expected to shift eastward towards the Great Lakes region. This persistent weather pattern is transforming what is typically a hot September in the South into a period of significant rainfall for the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes.