Control of statehouses across the nation will be on the line in the upcoming midterm elections, with several gubernatorial races drawing significant attention as they could determine which party holds a majority of governorships. While the battle for Congress often dominates discussions, the outcomes of these state-level contests may have a profound impact on the political landscape.
Historically, Republicans have held an advantage in governorships since 2010, but Democrats currently hold 24 of the 50 offices, making them just two states away from parity. This year's elections are seen as particularly important, with contests expected to reveal voter responses to the current political climate and the potential impact of former President Trump's influence.
Key Gubernatorial Contests
Wisconsin
Wisconsin presents a highly competitive race where Democrats are navigating internal ideological and electability debates. At least seven candidates are vying for the Democratic nomination, including State Rep. Francesca Hong and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. The primary saw recent shifts, with Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez withdrawing and county executive David Crowley re-entering the race with an endorsement from current Gov. Tony Evers. On the Republican side, U.S. House Rep. Tom Tiffany has secured Trump's backing and significant financial resources. Wisconsin is considered a toss-up state.
Iowa
In Iowa, while the Senate race is a toss-up, the gubernatorial contest is seen as leaning Democratic. Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn, a local farmer, in recent polling. Lahn, who received an endorsement from Trump after initially losing the primary, faces potential liabilities regarding his support for a six-week abortion ban and a recent move from Kansas. Sand is outraising Lahn, particularly from local donors, making this a competitive race that starts as Lean D.
Nevada
Nevada's gubernatorial race is shaping up to be a close and potentially expensive contest. Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, who won in 2022 in a state that had previously voted for Democratic governors, faces Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. Lombardo is highlighting his record on reducing business regulations, crime, and promoting housing projects. Ford, meanwhile, is positioning affordability and immigration as key issues where he blames Trump. Recent polling indicates some Hispanic voters in the state express disapproval of Trump, despite Nevada voting Republican in the last presidential election for the first time in two decades. The race is forecast as a toss-up.
Kansas
Republicans view Kansas as their best opportunity to flip a governorship this year, as Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, one of the few Democrats in states carried by Trump in the last presidential election, cannot seek a third term. Leading Democratic candidates include State Sens. Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson, focusing on affordability. Seven Republicans are competing, with Kansas Senate President Ty Masterson having secured Trump's endorsement. A significant issue is a $4 billion deal to relocate the Kansas City Chiefs, supported by Masterson and Corson but criticized by some Democrats. The race is considered Lean R.
Oregon
Oregon, a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 1982 and voted for Vice President Harris by a considerable margin in the last presidential election, is seeing a more competitive race than anticipated. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek faces Republican State Sen. Christine Drazan. Kotek is defending her record on housing, education, and mental health services, with reports indicating she is falling short of housing goals and the state faces educational challenges. Drazan narrowly lost to Kotek in 2022, and this race, while expected to remain in Democratic hands, is forecast as Likely D due to the close competition.
These gubernatorial races, alongside numerous House and Senate contests, will collectively shape the political direction of the country following the midterm elections.