A new poll released by Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman's campaign suggests he is trailing incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul by a narrow margin of four percentage points. The survey, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates, found Hochul leading Blakeman 49.6% to 45.7%, with 4.7% of likely voters undecided. The poll was based on interviews with 800 likely voters conducted between August 27 and August 31.

According to the pollster's memo, the results indicate a growing dissatisfaction among New York voters with Governor Hochul's performance. The survey found that 55% of voters view the governor unfavorably, and 56% believe it is time for new leadership, while only 38% feel she has performed well enough for re-election. Blakeman's campaign suggested this sentiment presents an opportunity for him to defeat Hochul in the November election.

However, the poll also highlighted a significant challenge for Blakeman: name recognition. Approximately 30% of likely voters reported either never having heard of him or having no opinion on him, with the election less than two months away. In contrast, an independent poll conducted last month by Siena College showed Hochul with a 10-point lead, 49% to 39%.

Geographically, the McLaughlin & Associates poll indicated Blakeman leads Hochul by 5 points (51% to 46%) upstate and by 10 points (53% to 43%) in the suburbs. Hochul maintains a substantial lead in New York City, with 60% to Blakeman's 33%. To overcome Hochul's advantage in the city, Blakeman would need strong turnout in upstate and suburban areas or to significantly narrow the gap within New York City.

The Blakeman campaign has sought to frame the election as a referendum on Hochul's record, with Blakeman stating, "The Worst Governor in America is on the ropes, and New Yorkers have had enough. This November, they’re going to fire Kathy Hochul and elect me to make New York affordable again."

Financials present another hurdle for the Republican challenger. As of July campaign filings, Governor Hochul's campaign, "Friends for Kathy Hochul," had $21 million on hand, with the state Democratic Party holding an additional $22 million. Blakeman's campaign and allied Republican groups have raised approximately $11 million, though outside Super PACs are contributing to his efforts.

This latest poll follows two other surveys released earlier this summer by groups supporting Blakeman. The Strong & Safe Super PAC reported a 4-point lead for Hochul (47% to 43%), while a survey for the Coalition to Protect New York Taxpayers showed Hochul ahead by 6 points (47% to 41%). In the 2022 gubernatorial election, Hochul defeated Republican Lee Zeldin by six points.