Republicans face a complex electoral scenario as they vie to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, with the potential for a House seat vacancy and a temporary reduction in the party's slim majority.
The race to fill Graham's South Carolina Senate seat has drawn a dozen Republican candidates, including some current House members. If a sitting representative wins the Senate seat, it would necessitate a special election for their House position, potentially leaving the GOP with fewer votes in Congress until that election is resolved.
President Trump has endorsed Darline Graham, the sister of the late senator, urging her to run "for the Good of our Nation" to honor her brother's legacy. However, some state Republicans, including Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), have expressed confidence that they can win, even with Trump's backing.
Norman, who has a conservative voting record and previously ran for governor, is currently leading in polling for the Aug. 11 Republican special primary, with Darline Graham closely behind. An Emerson poll released Thursday showed Norman with 22% and Graham with 19%, a result that would likely lead to a runoff election on Aug. 25.
South Carolina law permits candidates to run for both House and Senate simultaneously, though they cannot serve in both capacities. The potential consequence of a House member winning the Senate seat is a separate special election in 2027 for that House district. This would reduce the House Republicans' already narrow 218-212 majority for an interim period.
Rep. Russell Fry (R-S.C.) is identified as a particular concern for the party. Should Fry secure the GOP nomination and win the general election on Nov. 3 against Democrat Annie Andrews, he would have to vacate his House seat. This would trigger a special election in 2027, potentially impacting the House's voting balance.
Candidates in the race are aligning closely with former President Trump's policy positions. Norman has highlighted his support for Trump's proposed voting reforms, such as requiring ID for voting and proof of citizenship for registration, as well as ending the Senate filibuster.
Darline Graham was recently sworn in to temporarily fill her brother's Senate term, appointed by Gov. Henry McMaster. She has been seen as a caretaker, but her entry into the race has set up a competitive contest.
Other notable figures have entered the race or offered endorsements. Rep. Nancy Mace, who had considered running, has endorsed Norman. Turning Point USA has also backed Norman. Former Gov. Mark Sanford has announced his candidacy, citing the national debt as a key issue. Businessman Mark Lynch, who previously lost to the late Senator and alleged voter fraud, has also revived his campaign.
Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette had considered running but ultimately opted out.
The Republican nominee will be chosen in the Aug. 11 special primary. If no candidate secures over 50% of the vote, the top two contenders will proceed to an Aug. 25 runoff. The winner will then face Democrat Annie Andrews in the Nov. 3 special general election.