Germany is facing a significant political shift as the hard-right nationalist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) appears poised to take control of the regional parliament in Saxony-Anhalt. An exit poll released Sunday evening indicated that 44.5% of voters backed the AfD, a result that would mark the party's first time leading a regional government since the end of World War II.
The potential victory has raised concerns in both Berlin and Brussels. The AfD advocates for policies such as deporting undocumented migrants, closing the country's borders, banning LGBTQ rainbow flags in state schools, and halting new wind farm construction. Ulrich Siegmund, the party's state leader, has also expressed a desire to reform public broadcasters, abolish compulsory school attendance, and revise school curricula to de-emphasize the crimes of the Third Reich.
The AfD's rise in Saxony-Anhalt is attributed, in part, to nostalgia for the former East Germany and lingering resentment over economic disparities between the eastern and western parts of the country following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. The party has capitalized on these sentiments, with Siegmund telling supporters that "what we have started here in Saxony-Anhalt – that is currently sweeping across all of Germany – can no longer be stopped."
The potential outcome represents a substantial blow to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which saw its support in Saxony-Anhalt drop from 36% four years ago to an estimated 18%. Political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder of Kassel University noted that an AfD victory could embolden critics of Merz and intensify calls for new leadership. Merz's popularity has reportedly reached a post-war low, partly due to his administration's struggles with immigration. Since 2015, approximately 15 million migrants have entered Germany, many without authorization.
Concerns about the impact of immigration have been amplified by incidents such as a 2024 attack in Magdeburg, where a refugee drove a car into a Christmas market crowd, killing six people, including a child. Voters in Magdeburg expressed a desire for stricter immigration policies, with one resident stating, "Criminals should be kicked out and a person's religion considered when deciding who to let in."
In response to the potential AfD win, Merz is reportedly considering measures to cut state funds to Saxony-Anhalt and establish a "firewall" with left-wing parties to prevent AfD politicians from accessing sensitive government intelligence, citing alleged, though unproven, links to Russia.
The AfD has become a significant force in German national politics, currently polling above 20%. The election results are expected to be officially announced early today. Tension was evident at final campaign rallies, where opponents of the AfD gathered near AfD supporters, with a notable police presence. One incident involved security refusing entry to a woman in a burka at an AfD event, leading to her being escorted away by police as she expressed fear of expulsion for Muslims.
Hans-Thomas Tillschneider, the AfD's vice-chairman in the region, stated regarding such incidents that the party would deport those without legal status and emphasized the importance of German identity, referencing Elon Musk's views on being German.