California Governor Gavin Newsom's odds of winning the presidency in 2028 have fallen to an all-time low of 7% on the prediction market Polymarket, according to data from Thursday morning. This represents a significant decline from October of the previous year when his odds stood at 22%.
Shifting Political Landscape
Bettors on Polymarket are now favoring New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose odds have doubled this year to 13%, placing her ahead of Newsom among Democrats. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff is also gaining, with 12% odds.
Concerns have been raised about whether Newsom's ties to California, a state characterized by a high cost of living and extensive regulations, could be a liability with swing-state voters. Some Democrats question the appeal of a candidate from such a liberal governance model to a broader electorate.
Newsom, however, has defended California's economic standing, pointing to its high minimum wage, agricultural output, and venture capital activity as indicators of its dominance. "We're proud of that," he stated.
Broader Democratic Field
The shifting dynamics on the prediction market appear to mirror recent trends in Democratic primary polls. While Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris previously dominated early polling, both have reportedly lost ground in recent months.
Ocasio-Cortez has garnered attention following significant victories by socialist candidates in nationwide primaries. Increased interest has also been noted for figures like Ossoff and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Despite these shifts, recent polls from late August to early September have generally shown Harris leading the field, with Newsom consistently placing second or third.