Australia must "put the war paint on" and prepare for the possibility of war in the Pacific as early as next year, according to former Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo. His comments come amid ongoing discussions about the strategic landscape in the Indo-Pacific and the implications for Australia.
Pezzullo stated on Friday that while conflict is neither inevitable nor probable, it remains a possibility, particularly in the years between 2027 and 2029. He emphasized that if such a conflict were to arise, especially if Australia's principal ally were involved, the nation would need to be ready.
"I am delighted that what I'm hearing... [Mr Conroy] say, is that Taiwan will be our Poland, we will put the war paint on, that's what he's saying," Pezzullo remarked, referencing comments made by Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy. Conroy had recently addressed the National Press Club on Thursday, discussing the Albanese government's defense record and announcing procurement reforms.
Conroy also highlighted the strategic importance of Australia's domestic defense industry, describing a strong sovereign industrial base as central to the nation's broader regional engagement and security. "A strong sovereign industrial base increases our influence in the world, including in the Pacific," he said.
US intelligence assessments from March suggest that while China continues to pursue unification with Taiwan, an invasion is not currently planned for 2027, nor is there a fixed timeline. Beijing's decision to pursue military approaches would likely depend on factors such as the People's Liberation Army's readiness, Taiwan's actions, and the potential for U.S. military intervention.
China has stated that unification with Taiwan is essential for its goal of "national rejuvenation" by 2049. Beijing claims Taiwan as its own territory, viewing the issue as the most sensitive aspect of its relationship with Washington, while Taiwan's democratically elected government rejects these claims.
Conroy also asserted that Australia remains the Pacific's most trusted strategic ally and leading development partner. He rejected suggestions that Australia should reduce its engagement, stating, "Australia has a critical role to play in the Pacific as the region's biggest development partner and its strategic partner of choice."