An election on Sunday in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt could mark a significant moment in the country's post-World War II history, with polls indicating a strong lead for the anti-migration party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Victory in the state legislature election would represent the biggest achievement in the party's 13-year existence and could result in the first far-right state governor in Germany.
Wolfgang Merkel, a political science professor at the WBZ Berlin Social Science Center, described such an outcome as "breaking a taboo in Germany." He noted that modern Germany has historically been an exception in Europe for not having a radical right-wing party in power at any level of government.
The AfD holds a considerable lead in several polls ahead of the election in Saxony-Anhalt, a region west of Berlin with a population of 2.1 million. The party is aiming for an absolute majority in the state legislature. If achieved, this would circumvent the established refusal of mainstream parties to cooperate with the AfD. The party's regional branch in Saxony-Anhalt is classified as a proven right-wing extremist group by Germany's domestic intelligence agency, though the AfD vehemently rejects accusations of extremism.
Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's candidate for governor in Saxony-Anhalt, stated at a campaign event in Moeser that "This is a historic opportunity." He outlined top priorities including "the deportation of people who are illegal, a deportation offensive and above all dropping the incentives for why people come here and exploit our social system." Siegmund also expressed a desire to initiate a process to withdraw the state from the regional public broadcaster, citing concerns about "disinformation."
The incumbent governor, Sven Schulze of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), faces strong headwinds. His party has led Saxony-Anhalt since 2002. Schulze warned that an AfD government would signify a desire to "want the past back" and could lead to the state's "isolation." He highlighted the economic progress and unemployment reduction in the state since German reunification in 1990, arguing that the AfD's stance would be detrimental, especially given that many immigrants contribute to the workforce in hospitals and companies.
Schulze criticized the AfD's approach, stating, "AfD does one thing — it describes problems. But it never has a solution for a problem." He affirmed that he would not work with the party and has the CDU's full support. His administration has focused on economic strengthening and employment.
In last year's national election, the AfD achieved its best postwar result, securing 20.8% of the vote and becoming Germany's largest opposition party. Its support was particularly strong in the former East German states, including Saxony-Anhalt. The party has gained traction nationally by capitalizing on voter discontent beyond its core anti-migration platform, particularly amid concerns about Germany's sluggish economy.
Chancellor Merz's national government is struggling to overcome what he described as "widespread moroseness." His administration recently met to emphasize its commitment to reforms and urged a move away from "this climate of glumness and anger."
Even if the AfD emerges as the strongest party, its ability to govern remains uncertain. Political scientists suggest that without an absolute majority, the party would likely lack coalition partners. This scenario could lead to a situation where other parties form a government, potentially leaving voters with the impression that they are "clinging to power."
Germany's 16 states possess significant autonomy, particularly in areas such as security and education. The AfD's platform for Saxony-Anhalt includes proposals like permitting homeschooling and displaying the national flag in schools while prohibiting the rainbow flag. The party also advocates for halting financial aid to Ukraine and lifting sanctions against Russia, though these are national-level policy matters.
In 2023, the AfD secured its first county administration leadership position in the neighboring state of Thuringia. A state-level governorship would represent a considerable escalation of the party's ambitions, fueling its aspirations for future national-level gains.
The potential impact of an AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt on the national government is unclear. It could amplify a narrative of decline for traditional parties, especially if Merz's CDU and its coalition partners perform poorly in upcoming elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20. However, some analysts believe Saxony-Anhalt's relatively small size might limit its national impact.