Germans are voting in a crucial regional election in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right, anti-immigration party Alternative for Germany (AfD) is on track for a significant victory. The party has held a commanding lead in polls for months, with projections indicating it could secure over 40 percent of the vote. Polls opened at 8 a.m. local time and will close at 6 p.m., with initial projections expected shortly thereafter.
If the AfD wins, it would mark a historic achievement for the party, potentially securing its first-ever state government. The current administration in Saxony-Anhalt is led by the center-right CDU, in coalition with two smaller parties. The state's premier, Sven Schulze, hopes to form a multi-party coalition to maintain power.
However, all other major parties have maintained a policy of non-cooperation with the AfD, which Germany's domestic intelligence agency categorizes its Saxony-Anhalt branch as "right-wing extremist." The AfD's top candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, has expressed confidence in achieving an absolute majority, stating that if other parties refuse to cooperate, the AfD might govern alone. Such an outcome could significantly challenge Germany's political landscape, which has historically sought to distance itself from extremist parties due to its past.
A strong performance by the AfD could also increase pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his CDU party, which has pledged to revitalize the economy and curb immigration. The AfD has been gaining traction in national surveys, challenging the CDU's traditional dominance.
"If the AfD wins in Saxony-Anhalt, Merz's critics will become even more vocal, and calls for better leadership will become impossible to ignore," said political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder of Kassel University. However, Schroeder does not anticipate Merz's immediate ouster due to a lack of clear alternatives within the party.
Siegmund has outlined key campaign promises including a "remigration and deportation offensive," a ban on LGBTQ pride flags in public schools, and an halt to new wind farm construction. The party has also appealed to a sense of nostalgia for communist East Germany and lingering dissatisfaction over economic disparities with western Germany, decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
The prospect of an AfD-led state government has raised concerns among mainstream parties and minority groups. Thousands of AfD opponents participated in a "festival of democracy" rally in Magdeburg the day before the election.
Concerns have also been raised about the potential economic impact of the AfD's immigration policies, particularly in a state facing an aging and shrinking workforce that relies on foreign labor. Additionally, some have voiced fears that an AfD-controlled state security apparatus could share sensitive information with Russia. Thuringia state interior minister Georg Maier stated that the Kremlin considers the AfD a key tool for destabilizing Germany.
Recent polling places the AfD at 41 percent, with the CDU at 23 percent. The center-left SPD garnered 8.5 percent, and the Greens received six percent. Two smaller parties failed to clear the five-percent threshold for parliamentary representation. These results could lead to a scenario where the CDU and other parties form a minority government, potentially with support from the far-left Die Linke party, which polled at 11.5 percent.
In the final days of campaigning, unsubstantiated claims of mail-in vote fraud circulated on social media, including allegations of manipulation at an elderly care home, which state authorities have denied. Germany's parliamentary speaker Julia Kloeckner dismissed speculation of voter manipulation, suggesting such claims aim to undermine trust in the electoral process.
