Australia faces an elevated risk of nuclear attack and potential entanglement in a destructive conflict with China due to the AUKUS defense pact, according to military experts. The trilateral security agreement, established in 2021 by Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, aims to bolster military capabilities and security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.
Concerns Over Sovereignty and US Alignment
A public inquiry into the AUKUS pact heard that Australia's defense strategy and sovereignty have become increasingly tied to the United States. Former Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet secretary Michael Keating and former military public servant Jon Stanford warned that Australia could become more vulnerable if tensions between the US and China escalate, particularly over Taiwan. They stated that under the AUKUS strategy of 'integrated deterrence' in defense of US regional primacy, Australia is now more likely to be attacked, potentially with nuclear weapons. They recommended that the Australian government reconsider its defense strategy and explore alternatives to AUKUS submarines, such as conventionally powered vessels from France or South Korea.
Keating and Stanford argued that policies of 'integrated deterrence' and 'pooled sovereignty' grant the US greater access to Australian military facilities without reciprocal control for Australia. They also cautioned that the development of US military infrastructure in Australia, including facilities for US nuclear-powered submarines at HMAS Stirling in Western Australia, could make the country a prime military target. Approximately 1,000 US Navy personnel are expected to be stationed at HMAS Stirling starting next year to support submarine operations. Their submission to the inquiry noted that if a conflict were to occur between the US and China, Australia would inevitably be involved, even without providing direct military support.
Furthermore, they pointed out that Australia lacks a formal US guarantee of defense in the event of an attack, a security assurance provided to allies like Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea. The experts referenced past criticism from former French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, who had previously derided Australia's 2021 decision to abandon a $90 billion deal for French-built submarines in favor of AUKUS. Le Drian had accused Australia of sacrificing its sovereignty by opting for military technology it would not control.
Shifting Perspectives on Integration
Former home affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo also testified at the independent public inquiry, arguing for deeper military integration with the US while preserving Australia's autonomy in decisions regarding conflict engagement. Pezzullo asserted that alliances are primarily political instruments and warned against Australia being drawn into every US conflict. He echoed concerns that Australian military bases used by US forces could become targets in a war with China, even if Australia is not directly involved. "If I was a Chinese war planner," Pezzullo stated, "I would flatten every single potential facility that might be used overnight by Americans flying in."
However, Pezzullo also acknowledged the strategic advantages of AUKUS, suggesting that the nuclear-powered submarines would significantly enhance Australia's maritime operational capabilities and support the development of advanced autonomous underwater technology, which would be crucial for tracking enemy submarines and intelligence gathering in a future conflict. He presented Australia with two options: abstaining from a potential US-China conflict and risking the consequences of a US defeat, or strengthening its alliance with Washington with the hope that a combined military force would deter Chinese aggression. "I prefer that latter approach," he said, adding, "The war machine is the thing that prevents the war."
Defense Discussions and Submarine Acquisition
On Thursday, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles met with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in Washington D.C. to discuss expanding the US military presence on Australian bases. Marles confirmed that Australia's defense spending has reached 2.8 percent of GDP, according to NATO measures, representing the largest peacetime increase in defense expenditure. He also expressed confidence that Australia would receive its first Virginia-class submarine in 2032, although the acquisition is subject to a clause stipulating that only assets not required by the US would be provided, and final sale approval by a future US president.
