Caitlin Conley, a former Biden administration aide and military veteran, is projected to defeat incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., in New York’s 17th Congressional District, The Associated Press projected late Thursday. The race was considered a critical contest for control of the House of Representatives.
Multiple forecasts had identified the district as a likely pickup for Democrats. Both parties invested significant resources into the race, which is situated north of New York City and was won by Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. The district's outcome was seen as pivotal for each party's ambitions to secure a House majority.
Lawler, a two-term incumbent, navigated a challenging political landscape, balancing support for former President Donald Trump with attempts to present himself as an independent voice. The campaign was characterized by sharp disagreements on issues including immigration enforcement and taxation.
Lawler and his supporters highlighted the case of Sheridan Gorman, a college student from his district who was killed in Chicago. Gorman’s accused killer was reportedly an undocumented immigrant previously arrested but released without a federal immigration detainer due to Chicago's sanctuary city policies. Lawler and Gorman's family argued that such policies endanger Americans, and that Conley would not adequately address the impact of illegal immigration.
Conley, who served as counterterrorism director on the White House National Security Council from 2021 to 2023 and later as a senior advisor on election security at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, condemned Gorman's killing and stated her opposition to illegal immigration. However, she has not specifically spoken out against sanctuary laws.
The Cook Political Report ranked the district as a toss-up, while Fox News Power Rankings rated it as "lean Democrat."