Economist Warns Compulsory Redundancies May Be Necessary for Scottish Government Workforce Reduction
A warning has been issued that achieving public sector workforce reduction targets in Scotland may require compulsory redundancies, despite the government's stated principle against them.
An economist has cautioned that the Scottish Government might need to consider compulsory redundancies to meet its public sector workforce reduction goals. The government aims to decrease the public sector headcount by 0.5 percent annually by 2031 to address a projected £5 billion deficit.
The Scottish Government has a long-standing policy against compulsory redundancies within the civil service, intending to achieve reductions through attrition by not replacing departing staff. A report last month from the civil service suggested the possibility of a voluntary redundancy scheme, though ministers have maintained their commitment to avoiding forced job losses.
First Minister John Swinney recently declined to provide specific figures for potential job losses but reiterated the exclusion of compulsory redundancies. However, David Phillips, head of devolved and local government finance at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, expressed concerns about the feasibility of reaching the target solely through attrition. He stated that random attrition might not yield the necessary scale of reductions, especially as demand in certain areas and the need for skills in technology, such as nursing or software engineering, could require workforce increases.
Phillips suggested that while natural attrition and redeployment could play a role, the required pace of change might necessitate voluntary redundancies. He added that to truly achieve the targets, compulsory redundancies might unfortunately become a consideration in specific sectors to allow for growth in others.
This discussion arises as recent data indicates a continued expansion of Scotland's public sector, contrary to the Scottish National Party's promises to scale it back. In the year leading up to June 2026, an additional 6,640 individuals were employed, bringing the total public sector workforce to 603,800. This increase was observed in devolved civil services, local councils, and public corporations, although employment in colleges and police and fire services saw declines.
The Scottish Government has been approached for comment.