Democrats are leading in four pivotal Senate races in Maine, Michigan, Texas, and Kansas, according to a new CNN poll. These contests are projected to be tight and could significantly influence which party controls the Senate for the next two years.
Democrats need to flip four Senate seats to secure a 51-seat majority, which would protect their control against potential tie-breaking votes from the vice president. While Democrats are widely expected to win a majority in the House of Representatives, the Senate outcome remains uncertain.
Maine
In Maine, Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins is facing a close race against Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, the former president of the state Senate. The poll indicates Jackson holds a slight lead, with 49% of respondents favoring him compared to 45% for Collins. However, a significant portion of voters, approximately 12.5%, indicated they could still change their minds.
Collins, one of the few Republicans who voted for President Donald Trump's second impeachment and against Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's confirmation, has worked to distance herself from party ties. Three-quarters of respondents reported their choice was more influenced by Collins herself than by Jackson.
Michigan
Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is building a lead over former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan. El-Sayed is favored by 49% of likely voters, while Rogers has 42%. This represents an increase from a previous poll in September, which showed El-Sayed with a narrower 47% to 44% advantage.
El-Sayed has consolidated Democratic support following a primary contest. Ninety-five percent of likely Democratic voters intend to vote for him. Rogers' supporters, meanwhile, are reportedly more motivated by opposition to El-Sayed than by strong support for Rogers, with 57% citing dislike for the Democratic candidate as their reason for voting, up from 41% in the prior poll. Rogers' favorability has also declined.
Texas
Texas State Rep. James Talarico has widened his lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. The poll shows Talarico with 49% support compared to Paxton's 43%. This comes despite Talarico's absence from the campaign trail for a period in early October.
Talarico is benefiting from strong support among voters of color, with 64% of this group favoring him, though a portion of these voters also supported Trump in 2024. The race is notable in Texas, a state that has historically voted Republican in Senate elections.
Kansas
In Kansas, a state won by Trump with a significant margin in 2024, Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton is ahead of incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall. Hamilton holds 49% support, with Marshall at 45%.
Hamilton, a Christian pastor, is outperforming general Democratic favorability in the state. A majority of voters view the Democratic Party unfavorably, yet they view Hamilton more positively. Many of Hamilton's supporters, 59%, stated their motivation is opposition to Marshall. Notably, about 12% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters indicated support for Hamilton.
The CNN poll surveyed 838 likely voters in Kansas, 783 in Maine, 768 in Michigan, and 923 in Texas between Oct. 20 and Oct. 27. The margins of sampling error were plus or minus 4.5% for Kansas and Maine, 4.7% in Michigan, and 4.2% in Texas.