Democrats have shown increased enthusiasm and turnout in the 2026 midterm primaries, suggesting potential momentum as the general election approaches. An analysis of primary election data by ABC News indicates that Democratic voters are more likely to participate and more engaged in the electoral process compared to their Republican counterparts.
The analysis found that the relative turnout of Democratic primary voters to Republican primary voters increased in many states between 2022 and 2026. Relative turnout is defined as the number of Democratic votes divided by the number of Republican votes in a primary election. This increase was observed across various political environments and was particularly notable in states where Democrats held competitive primaries while Republicans did not, or vice versa.
In Wisconsin, for example, Democratic primary turnout was 1.61 times larger than Republican turnout in 2026, a significant increase from 0.72 times in 2022. This shift occurred even as the Democratic contest was hard-fought and expensive, while the Republican primary featured a decisive victory for an incumbent.
Even in states where both parties held highly competitive primaries, Democrats saw significant relative turnout gains. In Texas, the relative Democratic primary turnout increased from 0.55 times the size of Republican turnout in 2022 to 1.07 times in 2026. Similarly, in Idaho, a predominantly Republican state, relative Democratic primary turnout increased from 0.12 in 2022 to 0.21 in 2026.
Key battleground states crucial for control of the Senate, including New Hampshire, North Carolina, Minnesota, and Iowa, all showed increases in the relative size of the Democratic primary electorate. In 16 states, the relative Democratic primary participation reached 20-year highs when compared to Republican participation dating back to 2006. These states include Georgia, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas.
Relative Democratic turnout decreased in only three states: Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Oregon. In Oregon, the Democratic advantage decreased from 1.30 in 2022 to 1.15 in 2026, coinciding with competitive primaries in both parties in 2022 but an uncompetitive Democratic primary in 2026. In Kentucky and Oklahoma, while more people voted in Democratic primaries in 2026 than in 2022, the increase in Republican turnout, driven by competitive races for the Senate and governor, outpaced Democratic gains.
This analysis, which reviewed primary voting data from 2006 to 2026, focuses on statewide midterm primaries contested by more than one candidate for both parties. While the analysis does not predict general election outcomes, historical data suggests that the party with a greater average turnout advantage in previous midterm elections has tended to win more seats in the House and the Senate. The upcoming midterm elections will determine control of Congress, with Republicans currently holding slim majorities in both chambers.