Several California election races, including key House contests and the Los Angeles mayoral election, could take days to finalize, while the state's gubernatorial race is likely to be called almost immediately on election night, according to Democratic pollster Paul Mitchell.
Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., anticipates that the race for California governor between Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton will be decided rapidly, drawing parallels to the quick projections seen in past statewide votes like Proposition 50. He suggested that the partisan alignment in the governor's race mirrors that of Proposition 50, leading to an expected swift conclusion.
However, Mitchell cautioned that other races may present a more complex picture. Contests featuring two Democrats, such as the San Francisco congressional race for the seat previously held by Rep. Nancy Pelosi, between State Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan, could remain undecided until Friday. Similarly, the Los Angeles congressional race involving Rep. Jimmy Gomez and Angela Gonzales-Torres might also see delayed results.
In Sacramento, Mitchell estimated that Democratic Rep. Doris Matsui would need an early lead of approximately six points to secure victory against City Councilmember Mai Vang, given the potential for close results. The Central Valley race between Republican Rep. David Valadao and Democrat Randy Villegas is also predicted to be a close call, with reporting delays from counties like Kings potentially prolonging the final tally.
The Los Angeles mayoral race is another contest where a lengthy count is anticipated. Mayor Karen Bass, who previously won a race with a week-long ballot count, might need a significant lead on election night to fend off challenger Nithya Raman, as younger voters are expected to cast ballots later in the process.
Mitchell also weighed in on ballot propositions. He expects Proposition 39, a voter ID measure, to see its deficit widen with later returns. Conversely, Proposition 40, a proposed tax on billionaires, is predicted to be a tighter race, with later-counted ballots potentially favoring the measure. Opponents of the billionaire tax might need a 53% to 47% lead on election night, as Mitchell foresees late-returning ballots leaning towards its passage. Google co-founder Sergey Brin has reportedly invested over $100 million in efforts to defeat the proposition.
Mitchell noted that while later returns statewide tend to lean Democratic, some conservative areas, such as Placer and Riverside counties, may see late-arriving ballots from voters who are hesitant about mail-in voting. In contrast, he anticipates that younger voters in Los Angeles and Alameda counties could influence outcomes with their later ballot submissions, potentially boosting progressive candidates and measures.