A new poll indicates a shift in the political landscape, with the Conservative Party surpassing Reform UK in public support for the first time since January of the previous year. The survey by More in Common found Labour leading with 26% of intended votes, a one-point decrease, potentially signaling a stall in the "Burnham bounce." The Conservatives, under Kemi Badenoch, have risen to 23%, an increase of one point. Reform UK now stands at 22%, down one point and marking its lowest support level in 18 months.
The poll also showed the Liberal Democrats at 11% and the Green Party at 9%. Restore Britain, a rival party to Reform UK founded by MP Rupert Lowe, registered 4% support. Luke Tryl, UK director for More in Common, noted that these changes are within the margin of error and subject to fluctuation, especially during conference season. However, he highlighted that the current Conservative vote share is the highest since January, while Reform UK's is its lowest in 18 months.
"Obviously these are margin of error changes, and we should expect things to fluctuate over conference season," Tryl stated. "But this is the highest Conservative vote share since January of this year, and Reform's lowest in 18 months."
Tryl further explained that Restore Britain has only been actively prompted for two weeks, which could influence its reported vote share. "Prompting" means the party is presented as a named option to respondents.
A senior Conservative source commented on the poll, suggesting that Reform UK is "going backwards" due to factors including internal conflicts and unanswered questions about a significant personal donation. The source expressed a belief that it is "only a matter of time before Farage decides to throw in the towel."
In terms of leadership approval, Kemi Badenoch's standing has improved, showing a net positive rating for her leadership of the Conservative Party, up one point to +1. This figure still trails behind Mr. Burnham's rating of 13 points. Sir Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, received a -5 rating, while Rupert Lowe was at -12, and Nigel Farage at -27, just one point ahead of Green Party leader Zack Polanski.
Conservative representatives stated that the party is regaining momentum under Badenoch's leadership, emphasizing their role in holding Labour accountable and presenting plans for government. They asserted that the Conservatives are the "only party that will get Britain working again."
This poll follows a recent reshuffle of the Conservative frontbench by Ms. Badenoch, aimed at preparing the party for a general election. Key changes included Andrew Griffith replacing Sir Mel Stride as Shadow Chancellor, Tom Tugendhat stepping in as Shadow Foreign Secretary, and Katie Lam taking on the housing and local government portfolio. A Conservative MP noted that the reshuffle signals a move towards defining the party's future government platform, with the new team intended to provide the necessary energy for an election campaign.