Donald Trump is experiencing a significant decline in support among moderate Republicans, a crucial demographic within the party, according to CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten. This erosion of support is a "big uh-oh" moment for the former president, Enten stated.
A recent CNN/SSRS poll revealed a dramatic shift in support among moderate Republicans, who constitute 30% to 40% of the GOP. Trump's advantage over Democratic rival Kamala Harris among this group has plummeted from a 69-point lead to just 10 points. This represents a 59-point swing.
"Moderate Republicans abandoning Donald John Trump," Enten said, characterizing the situation as "a big uh-oh."
The economy, a key issue that previously bolstered Trump's standing, has also seen a substantial decline in his favor. Polling data indicates that Trump’s net approval on the economy has fallen from an 80-point lead to a mere 3-point lead, a 77-point drop. On inflation specifically, his polling is at -17%.
Enten noted that Republicans running in swing districts rely on the support of moderate Republicans. "If I’m a Republican running for Congress in those swing districts, I need those moderate Republicans, and they are leaving Donald Trump," he said. "They may be leaving those Republican candidates as well."
Beyond the erosion of support among a key GOP segment, Enten also challenged Trump's assertions that his reported polling numbers are inaccurate and that he is performing well. Enten described such claims as being "not on planet earth."
Data presented by Enten illustrates a consistent downward trend in Trump's net approval ratings. From a +6 net approval in January 2025, his standing has fallen to -21. This marks the lowest point of his second term and represents a continuous decline over 494 days, during which all aggregated polls have shown him with a negative net approval rating.
"This is the lowest he has been in term in number two," Enten stated, referring to these as "record lows for himself."