China is facing a significant birthrate crisis, a demographic shift that some experts believe could precipitate a "civilizational collapse" and lead to increased global instability. The nation's population, currently reported at 1.42 billion, is on the verge of a precipitous decline, with projections suggesting the United States could surpass China in population by the year 2100. Demographer Yi Fuxian estimates China's population could fall to as few as 330 million by the century's end, while the U.S. Census Bureau projects the U.S. population to reach 366 million.
This demographic cliff is seen by some analysts as a potential catalyst for more aggressive geopolitical behavior from China. Historically, population size has been viewed as a primary source of national strength, but a shrinking populace could diminish China's power on the global stage. "Fewer people, then, means less power," notes Gordon G. Chang, author of "Plan Red: China's Project to Destroy America."
Beijing has reportedly attempted various measures to stabilize the falling population, but these efforts have so far proven unsuccessful. "No country has successfully raised fertility with government policies," stated Wang Feng of the University of California, Irvine. Demographics expert Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute commented that while it is possible to use force to lower birth rates, it is significantly more difficult to compel citizens to have more children through state power.
One unconventional suggestion for addressing the crisis emerged in 2023 from Zhao DaShuai, who described herself as a propagandist for the Chinese military. She proposed that "sooner or later, reproduction will be an industrialized process; it’s the only way to maintain a healthy birthrate," likening the concept to industrializing birth in a "Matrix"-style fashion.
The potential consequences of a rapidly shrinking and aging population are a subject of debate. Charles Burton of the Sinopsis think tank suggests that an aging population could slow economic growth, intensifying domestic pressures and leading the regime to prioritize stability through increased surveillance and security spending. However, history also provides examples of aging societies, such as Germany in the 1930s and Serbia in the 1990s, that became particularly violent and aggressive.
Analysts like Gordon G. Chang point to the significant surplus of men in China, a result of the one-child policy, as a potential factor in increased international assertiveness. The surplus of tens of millions of unmarriable males, termed "bare branches," has historically been linked to a nation's propensity for risk-taking foreign policies. According to "Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia’s Surplus Male Population" by Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer, "the security logic of high-sex-ratio cultures predisposes nations to see some utility in interstate conflict."
Furthermore, Chinese President Xi Jinping may feel pressure to act decisively to achieve his ambitions, which are influenced by the imperial-era belief in ruling "all under Heaven" (tianxia). The perception of a closing window of opportunity due to demographic shifts could impel swift action. "No one is going to bow down to a country quickly transitioning from giant to midget," said Blaine Holt, a China analyst and retired U.S. Air Force general. "Xi, if he is to achieve his ambitions, has to act fast or not at all."
As China's population continues to contract, the implications for its foreign policy and its relationship with the United States are likely to be profound. "A fundamental reassessment of China’s trajectory, US-China relations, and broader global economic and geopolitical trends" may be on the horizon, according to Yi Fuxian. The demographic challenges facing China could reshape global dynamics in the coming decades.