California, a state historically associated with youth and opportunity, is aging at an accelerated pace, with its over-65 population projected to double in 20 years—a decade sooner than the national average.
By 2060, the state's median age is expected to surpass 45, a significant increase from its 1970 median age of nearly 28. This demographic shift is compounded by a steady exodus of working-age residents, particularly middle-aged families. Since 2000, California has experienced a net domestic migration loss of over 4 million people, a trend that has intensified in recent years.
This outmigration is partly attributed to the state's prohibitive housing market. The gap in homeownership rates between California and the rest of the nation has reached a record high. Between 1980 and 2020, the proportion of Californians aged 25 to 35 who owned homes dropped from 39.4% to 15.5%. Consequently, individuals in their 30s and early 40s, the prime demographic for raising families, are leaving the state in large numbers.
In addition to domestic migration, California has also seen a decline in its foreign-born population during the 2010s, as immigrants sought opportunities elsewhere. The state's deindustrializing economy, outside of the high-tech sector, has contributed to a poverty rate that is now the highest in the nation. This economic landscape has led to a cessation in the building of schools and factories, with a focus shifting toward the construction of hospitals to accommodate the growing elderly population.
The state's total fertility rate has also declined significantly, falling to the 10th lowest in the nation, well below that of competitor states like Texas. In LA County and Orange County alone, birth rates have dropped by over 15% in the last decade, resulting in a substantial decrease in the under-25 population. This shrinking cohort represents a loss of future prime-age workers.
Meanwhile, states like Texas, Utah, Idaho, and Arizona have experienced double-digit growth in this same demographic over the past two decades.
The impact on California's educational system is pronounced, with school enrollment declines exceeding the national trend. Between 2019 and 2023, California schools lost 325,000 students, a 5% decrease. Projections indicate this loss could widen to one million by 2031. The Los Angeles Unified School District, the state's largest, has seen a 27% enrollment decrease in the past decade and a 44% drop over 20 years.
Addressing this demographic challenge requires significant policy reforms, particularly in housing. Current regulations make building the single-family homes preferred by most Californians exceedingly difficult, and dense urban environments are often unsuitable for raising families. Experts suggest a shift toward lower-density developments, which tend to foster higher birth rates.
Policy changes could also involve reforms to tax policies, potentially allowing seniors to sell their homes without prohibitive capital gains liabilities, a measure also being considered at the federal level. Proposals, such as one from LA Mayor Karen Bass, suggest encouraging the construction of senior housing. This could, in turn, free up existing homes for younger generations.
The author, Joel Kotkin, warns that failure to address the housing crisis and improve job opportunities could lead to a future where younger generations, frustrated by economic stagnation, may embrace more radical redistributionist policies. Such policies, he suggests, could disproportionately affect working-class immigrants and small business owners, rather than solely targeting the wealthy.
Ultimately, the article posits that while socialism is not a solution to California's aging crisis, a failure to implement housing reforms and create better jobs risks a dystopian future for the state.