A multi-million dollar mansion in Dana Point, California, is precariously perched on a eroding cliffside, with its owner bracing for the potential impact of a predicted "super El Niño." The $10 million property, owned by 82-year-old ophthalmologist Raymond Nooten for over 30 years, is now dangerously close to a 70-foot drop onto train tracks and the beach below.
Coastal erosion and landslides are an increasing concern for thousands of homeowners along California's coast, and experts warn that a strong El Niño expected later this year could significantly worsen the situation, potentially leading to the loss of cliffs, bluffs, and beaches.
Nooten's home is supported by 70 pylons extending 70 feet down to bedrock. He noted that building a house of its kind today would not be permitted due to modern construction regulations. While Nooten states his property is currently "fine," he has observed past damage to neighboring properties, including a pool that collapsed after a rainstorm. He also noted that some beachfront properties below his home have experienced more significant erosion, with waves now breaking almost directly beneath his bluff where a sandy beach once extended approximately 100 yards.
Despite the precarious situation, Nooten has no plans to leave his home, expressing a desire to "die in this house." He has lived there since 1996 and has moved back only about a foot from the bluff's edge since purchasing it.
Gary Griggs, a professor of earth sciences at the University of California, Santa Cruz, explained that high waves and elevated sea levels are undercutting coastal bluffs, increasing the risk of landslides and cliff failures. He differentiates between beach-level construction, which faces issues with rising water and wave action, and bluff and cliffside properties, which present a different set of challenges.
Griggs, who consults on coastal property acquisitions, stated that a combination of high water, high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall weakens bluffs, leading to cliff collapses. He indicated that he would personally be more conservative about living in such a location due to his extensive career in coastal hazards and engineering.
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures, often bringing heavy rainfall that can cause flooding and landslides. California has experienced severe El Niño events in the past, resulting in significant property damage and coastal erosion. The 2015-2016 El Niño event, for instance, caused the highest recorded beach erosion in the state's history, prompting warnings that coastal regions are becoming increasingly vulnerable.
Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) have indicated a one-in-three chance of a super El Niño developing between October and December. Griggs suggests that disappearing beaches are just the initial sign, warning that escalating storm severity may eventually make retreat the only viable long-term solution for the over 25 million people living along Southern California's coast. He anticipates that if past patterns hold true and current satellite observations are indicative, this year's El Niño could be a major event, impacting beaches, cliffs, and bluffs.