A luxury home in Long Beach, California, saw its asking price slashed by over $2 million after recent storm surges caused severe erosion, damaging the property and its adjacent beach. This incident serves as a stark example of a widespread threat detailed in California's newly released Fifth Climate Change Assessment, which projects that 24% to 75% of the state's beaches could be lost seasonally or permanently by 2100 without intervention.
The assessment highlights that highly developed areas in Southern California are particularly vulnerable to severe losses. Coastal erosion, exacerbated by rising sea levels, is reshaping shorelines and exposing billions of dollars in property to risk. Data from the U.S. Geological Survey indicates that with just one meter of sea-level rise, approximately $6.6 billion in property value falls within projected shoreline-change hazard zones. This figure rises to nearly $24.7 billion with three meters of sea-level rise, based on 2020 assessments.
However, these figures may underestimate the current risk, as coastal property values have significantly increased since 2020. While property assessments are often capped by Proposition 13, market prices in counties like Orange, San Diego, Los Angeles, and Santa Barbara have seen substantial gains. In Orange County, the median sale price rose 61% from 2020 to the first seven months of 2026, from about $783,000 to $1.26 million.
Protecting Vulnerable Shorelines
The California Climate Change Assessment emphasizes that its projections of beach loss are contingent on the absence of intervention. Coastal communities employ various strategies to preserve shorelines, including sand replenishment, dune restoration, building seawalls, and relocating structures. Long Beach, for instance, has long engaged in efforts to maintain its beaches. Due to a lack of natural sand supply caused by harbor construction and other coastal structures, the city annually spends between $1 million and $1.5 million on sand movement.
This year's severe erosion events have prompted additional emergency public costs exceeding $1 million, alongside an $11.4 million project for dredging and beach nourishment. Despite these efforts, some residents and agents believe interventions have been insufficient or too late to prevent damage. The recent storms, including Tropical Storm Rachel, have intensified erosion, leading to properties being red-tagged as unsafe, as was the case with the Long Beach home that lost significant value.
The Trade-offs of Coastal Defense
The state's assessment also points to the potential downsides of certain protective measures. Hard armoring, such as seawalls and rock revetments, can prevent beaches from migrating inland with rising sea levels, a phenomenon known as "coastal squeeze." This process can lead to beach loss and reduced biodiversity. By 2018, approximately 14% of California's coastline was armored, with over a third of Southern California's coast utilizing such defenses.
Beyond erosion, rising sea levels pose other threats. The assessment projects an average sea-level rise of 3.1 to 6.6 feet by 2100. Coastal flooding alone, without storm surges, could impact an estimated 201,000 people and $78 billion in property with 3.3 feet of rise. Rising groundwater levels could further affect 1.9 million coastal residents and $480 billion in property.
Despite the evident risks, interest in beachfront properties persists. Developers are reportedly exploring opportunities to acquire damaged parcels for future luxury construction, calculating that the value of oceanfront land may still justify the investment, especially if shorelines continue to be defended. This dynamic highlights the complex challenge facing California's coastal communities: the greater the perceived value of the land, the stronger the incentive to protect it, perpetuating a cycle of defense against an advancing ocean.