A significant portion of the United States' broccoli supply could be vulnerable to drought, according to new research from Cornell University. The study highlights that over 90% of fresh broccoli grown in the U.S. comes from California, a concentration that leaves the popular vegetable's supply chain susceptible to dry conditions.
Researchers modeled the broccoli supply chain under various drought scenarios, using historical shipping and drought data. Their findings suggest that California broccoli shipments could decline by approximately 9% during moderate drought conditions and by over 20% under severe drought conditions. However, industry representatives caution that the higher figure represents a statistical average derived from historical data and does not indicate a past supply collapse of that magnitude.
Christopher Valadez, president and CEO of the Grower-Shipper Association of Central California, stated that California's coastal growing regions have historically maintained broccoli supply through drought periods by adapting irrigation and crop management. He noted that the 20% figure is a statistical average correlating historical monthly shipments with drought index readings between 2000 and 2019, not a record of any single year's supply collapse.
Diversification Potential
The Cornell study explored the potential for expanding broccoli production across 10 Eastern states as a means to buffer against California's drought impacts. The researchers' model indicated that such expansion could offer a more resilient source for the nation's broccoli supply. Because growing seasons differ across these Eastern states, production could be staggered throughout the year, shifting from Southern states in cooler months to Northern states as temperatures rise.
Under severe drought conditions in California, the study's model projected that expanded Eastern production could lead to annual supply chain cost reductions of about $10 million and decrease transportation distances to Eastern markets by roughly 20%.
Industry Perspective on Diversification
While acknowledging the potential benefits of diversifying the broccoli supply, Valadez pointed out that Eastern regions face their own weather-related risks, including summer heat, humidity-related diseases, and greater seasonal variability. He emphasized that while diversification has a role in risk management, California's established adaptive capacity and quality advantages should also be factored into assessments of the nation's broccoli supply resilience.
Even under the proposed expansion scenario, California would continue to be a major broccoli producer. The concept of East Coast production is viewed as a supplementary option to bolster supply when California shipments are reduced due to drought, rather than a replacement for Western production.