California Billionaire Tax Faces Hurdles Despite Majority Support in New Poll

A proposed 5% one-time tax on the total wealth of California's billionaires, known as Proposition 40, is favored by a majority of likely voters, according to a new Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) survey. However, the measure faces significant challenges from competing ballot initiatives also included in the November election.

The PPIC poll, conducted between September 4-10 among 1,103 likely voters, found that 52% support Proposition 40, while 46% oppose it, and 2% were undecided. This indicates a lead for the billionaire tax measure, which is primarily backed by SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West and aims to generate revenue to offset federal funding cuts in healthcare and education.

Despite this majority support, two other measures, Proposition 41 and Proposition 42, have garnered similar levels of voter favor and could potentially undermine or nullify Proposition 40. Both of these counter-measures were funded by Google co-founder Sergey Brin, who has reportedly invested over $100 million in initiatives aimed at influencing tax policy, governance reform, and building regulations in the state.

Proposition 42, which 54% of poll respondents favored, seeks to prohibit new taxes on personal property not classified as real estate, including assets like retirement accounts and intellectual property. If passed, it would prevent the billionaire tax from taking effect. Proposition 41, supported by 51% of voters, includes provisions to block the billionaire tax alongside measures to increase audits of taxpayer-funded programs.

Mark Baldassare, PPIC's statewide survey director, noted the complexity of the situation. "The supporters of Prop. 40 have to think about and perhaps do something about the fact that so many people are supporting 41 and 42," he told the Mercury News. "Therein lies the problem when you have measures and countermeasures on the ballot."

The PPIC survey reported a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points. The margin of error for Proposition 41 was 3.7 percentage points, and for Proposition 42 it was 3.9 percentage points.

Opponents of the billionaire tax, including Governor Gavin Newsom and various business groups, argue that it could harm California's economy. An analysis cited by critics suggests the measure could lead to a loss of 100,000 jobs and billions in tax revenue as billionaires might choose to relocate their businesses and residences out of state. Proponents, however, maintain the tax is necessary to fund essential public services.

Dave Regan, leader of SEIU-UHW, has framed the California initiative as part of a broader national movement. He told Politico in August that the campaign had underestimated the attention and interest generated by the measure, acknowledging its provocative nature. Brin's political spending group, Building a Better California, has also contributed to Proposition 45, a measure focused on limiting California Environmental Quality Act building reviews.