As the United States prepares to mark its 250th anniversary, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has asserted that the nation's founding principles, rooted in British enlightenment ideals, will ensure its global dominance for at least another century. Johnson argues that the foundational concepts of the rule of law, representative government, and individual liberties, established by British settlers and articulated in the Declaration of Independence, are the bedrock of America's current success.
Johnson's commentary draws a parallel between the founding of the U.S. and its future geopolitical standing, particularly in comparison to China. He contends that the notion of China inevitably surpassing the United States as the hegemonic power is "utter rubbish." The argument posits that the U.S. maintains a significant lead in critical areas, including military strength, economic influence, and technological innovation, which are likely to remain unassailable for decades to come.
Military and Economic Strengths
In terms of hard power, Johnson highlights the U.S. defense spending, which he states is more than three times that of China. The U.S. possesses a substantial advantage in naval power, with 11 nuclear-powered supercarriers compared to China's three, and a significant lead in nuclear-powered attack submarines, aviation, and space technology. Furthermore, the U.S. has extensive global military bases and alliances, including NATO, whereas China has a single overseas base and few military allies.
Economically, American companies represent 65 percent of the global stock market value. The U.S. dollar remains the world's reserve currency, with 58 percent of foreign exchange reserves held in dollars, a status that Johnson sees no sign of changing. The per capita GDP of the average American is considerably higher than that of the average Chinese citizen, standing at $94,000 per year compared to under $15,000 in China. This economic robustness is further bolstered by geographic advantages, abundant natural resources, and a dynamic energy sector, with the U.S. being a leading producer of oil and natural gas and investing heavily in renewables.
Human Capital and Innovation
Johnson also emphasizes the strength of American human capital, particularly in the field of Artificial Intelligence, where the U.S. holds a dominant position. He attributes this to a network of top-tier universities that attract global talent, alongside a robust ecosystem of tech startups and venture capital. Approximately half a million foreign postgraduate students are currently enrolled in American institutions, drawn by the U.S.'s continued openness to talent. Unlike China, which has a low rate of foreign-born residents, America remains a substantially immigrant society, with 28 percent of its population being immigrants or their children.
Demographic Trends
A significant factor in Johnson's assessment is the demographic outlook for both nations. He notes that China's birth rate has fallen sharply, potentially leading to a significant population decline by the end of the century. In contrast, the U.S. population is projected to rise. This demographic trend, coupled with the U.S.'s continued capacity to attract immigrants, suggests a narrowing of the population gap, which could impact the relative economic trajectories of the two countries. Johnson suggests that China's demographic advantage, a key assumption in predictions of its rise, is proving to be inaccurate.
Johnson concludes by reflecting on the enduring appeal of American ideals, including constitutional liberties, freedom of speech, and the right to elect and remove government officials. He credits these principles, originating from British colonial governance, as the ongoing guarantee of America's prosperity and its continued position as a leading global power.