Leaders from the BRICS nations are convening in New Delhi this weekend, facing a landscape increasingly strained by international conflicts and geopolitical rivalries that are testing the bloc's cohesion. The summit comes as the grouping, which now includes 11 countries representing approximately half the world's population, grapples with the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as tensions between the United States and China.
Host India aims to navigate its complex relationships, balancing its deepening partnerships with the United States and Western powers against its long-standing ties with China and Russia. Key leaders expected to attend include Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
The expanded BRICS, originally an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has grown to encompass major emerging markets and developing countries. However, this growth has also brought to the surface divergent political, economic, and foreign policy interests among its members, complicating the group's ambition for greater influence in the global order.
Conflicts in Iran and Ukraine are poised to highlight these divisions. Iran is a member of the expanded bloc, while Russia remains a significant influence. China maintains close ties with both nations, and India is engaged with Russia, Iran, the United States, and Europe. This diversity of interests makes it challenging for BRICS to adopt unified stances on major global conflicts.
The South Asian region itself presents complexities, with countries like India and China harboring competing regional ambitions. Similarly, Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as Egypt and Ethiopia, have their own distinct interests within the broader bloc.
India's approach to the war in Ukraine has exemplified the difficulties in balancing competing interests. New Delhi has sustained close relations with Moscow through energy and defense agreements while simultaneously strengthening its strategic partnership with Washington. India has consistently advocated for dialogue and diplomacy rather than taking sides.
The Iran-U.S. conflict presents a parallel challenge for BRICS, with members holding varying relationships with Washington and diverse interests in the Middle East. China and Russia have supported Iran in international forums, whereas India has adopted a more cautious stance. Regional players like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also have their own points of tension with Tehran.
For India, the summit offers an avenue to manage its relationship with China, its principal strategic rival. While border tensions escalated in 2020, diplomatic ties have shown some signs of improvement. Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to New Delhi, his first in seven years, could help solidify this recent diplomatic thaw, though recovery in trade and business relations remains uncertain.
India also seeks to prevent BRICS from evolving into an explicitly anti-Western coalition. New Delhi has concurrently enhanced its ties with the United States, Japan, Australia, and European nations while preserving its traditional relationship with Russia. This strategy allows India to assert its strategic autonomy by participating in a non-Western grouping while engaging with its primary rival, China.
A significant agenda item for BRICS is the reduction of dependence on the U.S. dollar. Discussions have centered on increasing intra-bloc trade using member currencies and establishing payment systems that lessen reliance on Western financial institutions. This initiative has gained traction, particularly as countries like Russia face extensive Western sanctions.
However, supplanting the dollar is a formidable task given its entrenched role in global trade and finance. The diverse economic systems and priorities of BRICS members further complicate this objective. Mahesh Sachdev, a retired Indian diplomat, suggests that the aim should be to reduce exposure to a financial system that can be leveraged for political pressure, rather than a direct confrontation with the dollar.
BRICS' expanding membership grants it substantial leverage, but its ultimate influence hinges on the members' capacity to agree on concrete actions. The group has advocated for reforms in global financial institutions, increased representation for developing countries, and alternatives to Western-dominated systems. Yet, consensus on the implementation of these goals often proves elusive.
Experts suggest that BRICS' success may be measured incrementally. This could include maintaining unity within the expanded group, fostering improved relations with China, and deepening trade and financial cooperation. Furthermore, the bloc could demonstrate its ability to provide a platform for developing countries without compelling them to align exclusively with either Western or non-Western blocs, thereby enabling incremental geopolitical gains.