The number of young children residing in large American cities has fallen by 15% over the past decade, a steeper decline than the national average. This trend, identified in an analysis of 38 major U.S. cities between 2015 and 2024, points to the increasing challenges families face in urban environments, including high costs of living and childcare.

San Jose, California, saw the most significant decrease in its under-five population, with a drop of 34% in the past ten years. Overall, the city experienced a 20% decline in its under-18 population during the same period. Los Angeles followed with a 16% decrease in young children and a 16% overall decline in residents under 18. Other cities experiencing substantial drops in their child populations include Albuquerque, New Mexico, with a 15% decline, and Portland, Oregon, and San Diego, both with 14% decreases.

Even cities that experienced overall population growth during the decade reported a decrease in the number of children. Roughly two-thirds of the analyzed large cities saw a reduction in their child populations. Factors cited by parents who moved away include concerns about safety and quality of life, in addition to financial pressures.

In New York City, the number of residents under 18 decreased by 8%. For context, the city's economic development corporation noted that since 2000, New York has lost approximately 80,000 households with children or married couples, while gaining 670,000 households comprising single individuals or families without children under 18. The cost of childcare for a two-year-old in New York is estimated at $334,000 annually, and median rent for a three-bedroom apartment is nearly $5,500, according to city analyses.

Nationally, the fertility rate has also seen a decline, falling 9% in the past decade, particularly among women in their 20s and Hispanic women. However, the analysis by the Wall Street Journal indicates that urban areas are experiencing a more pronounced decrease in their child populations compared to national trends.

Conversely, some cities, primarily in the Sunbelt region where living costs are more moderate, have seen increases in their child populations. Fort Worth, Texas, and Jacksonville, Florida, each reported an 11% rise in their under-18 populations. Other cities that added children include Washington D.C. and Seattle, both with 10% increases, and Columbus, Ohio, with a 9% rise.