Bass Leads Raman in LA Mayor Race Amidst Youth Voter Surge, Polls Show

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass held a 12-point lead over challenger Nithya Raman in two recent exit polls, but a surge in younger voters could threaten the incumbent’s advantage as the mayoral showdown heads toward its conclusion. Polls conducted on Oct. 22 and Nov. 2 showed Bass leading Raman 56% to 44%, according to the California Post. Political consultant Michael Trujillo, who conducted the polls, stated that the race has become a battle between two distinct voting blocs, with Bass dominating among voters over 50 and Raman drawing strong support from younger voters.

Trujillo described the candidates’ competing efforts to maximize turnout among their respective age groups as a fight for market share. Between Oct. 22 and Nov. 2, Bass strengthened her support among Black, Republican, and older respondents, while Raman continued to draw significant backing from younger voters. Bass's support among Black respondents climbed from 71% to 78%, and her backing among Republicans jumped from 65% to 77%. Her support among voters over 50 also increased by nine points, from 65% to 74%.

Raman, however, has a potential path to victory through younger voters. The share of respondents under 50 rose from 31% in the October survey to 40% in November. Raman maintained a nine-point advantage among Latino respondents, a slight decrease from October, while Democratic respondents remained evenly divided. The surveys included 1,966 respondents on Oct. 22 and 1,602 on Nov. 2, drawn from voter records of individuals who had already cast ballots. Both surveys were conducted exclusively through English-language text messages, which may have excluded voters who do not speak English or could not be reached via text.

When the latest votes are projected, Raman is ahead with 51.5% to Bass’s 48.5%. Election experts suggest that Bass would be in a stronger position if she secures a double-digit lead when the first ballots are counted. A narrower margin, however, could leave the incumbent vulnerable to a late comeback by Raman as additional votes are tallied.