Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda stated Wednesday that intelligence assessments indicate Russia is planning potential attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic states and Poland. Authorities are monitoring the risk of disruptions to energy and transport systems, including facilities vital to Lithuania's connection with the European electricity grid.
"I cannot deny that we have such information and that it concerns limited kinetic operations likely targeting critical infrastructure," Nausėda told Lithuania's BNS news agency. He noted that the intelligence did not specify a location or timing for the potential attacks, which could involve conventional or other means.
Russia has dismissed the claims as an attempt to justify NATO's military buildup in the Baltic region. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the warning a "fresh batch of bugaboos intended to continue the brainwashing and prepare the population for further militarization," suggesting it serves as a pretext for NATO to expand its military infrastructure.
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs echoed similar concerns, warning that Moscow might respond to Ukraine's pressure with provocations against NATO's eastern flank. He suggested that Russia could "indirectly test Article 5 and response mechanisms at the Alliance and European Union levels." Rinkēvičs characterized the next 12 months as crucial for Baltic security.
The three Baltic states—Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—along with Poland, have bolstered security around key transport and energy infrastructure. These nations, situated on NATO's eastern flank, have long reported being targets of Russian hybrid attacks, a threat that has escalated since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Recent incidents have heightened tensions. Poland reported intercepting Russian aircraft conducting surveillance of its air defense systems over the Baltic Sea earlier this week. Lithuanian military chief of defense, Gen. Raimundas Vaikšnoras, confirmed the deployment of additional forces to protect strategic infrastructure, citing Russia's rhetoric as an effort to erode public trust.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk emphasized the need to take these warnings seriously, stating that Poland is preparing intensively for various scenarios. He noted that the coming months could be critical, particularly given the evolving nature of the war in Ukraine. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski issued a direct message to Russian President Vladimir Putin: "We know what you are planning. Don’t do it."
The European Union reported on Monday that Russia's FSB Center 16 had engaged in cyberespionage and sabotage against defense industries and critical infrastructure across Europe, including a December attack on a Polish power plant. A report from the International Institute of Strategic Studies suggested Russia may have used shadow ships to launch drones that disrupted civilian aviation in Europe between 2024 and 2026.
The Baltic region also faces challenges from stray Ukrainian drones targeting Russian energy export ports. In May, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa resigned following government handling of incidents involving suspected Ukrainian drones crossing into Latvian territory. In late May, residents in Vilnius, Lithuania, were seen sheltering in underground parking garages amid warnings of unidentified drone activity, marking a notable instance in a NATO and EU capital.