Leopold Aschenbrenner, a 24-year-old hedge fund manager known for his bold predictions about artificial intelligence, experienced a dramatic financial reversal just days before his wedding. His massively leveraged fund, Situational Awareness, collapsed through July 30, plunging 67% and forcing an emergency sale of most of its public-stock portfolio to Ken Griffin's Citadel.
Aschenbrenner signed the paperwork for the sale early on a Thursday morning before traveling to Carmel, California, for his wedding that weekend. He had reportedly promised his future wife, Avital Balwit, chief of staff to Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, that he would one day buy her a galaxy, a notion he had discussed with friends for years.
Situational Awareness, which Aschenbrenner built into a $45 billion fund with little prior investing experience, focused heavily on AI supply chain companies, including semiconductor, energy, and software stocks, as well as private companies. The fund operated with significant leverage, borrowing approximately $3 for every $1 of capital, which left it vulnerable to a July tech selloff that hammered its concentrated AI bets.
The fund's collapse triggered margin calls, leading Aschenbrenner to seek emergency financing. He reportedly considered selling a $3.5 billion stake in AI firm Anthropic before ultimately agreeing to the deal with Citadel. The transaction proved beneficial for Citadel, as the acquired AI stocks subsequently rallied.
The aftermath of the fund's implosion impacted its sophisticated investors, with Jane Street reportedly losing about $15 billion in July, its worst monthly loss on record. Federal regulators are reportedly scrutinizing Situational Awareness's trading activity, although no formal allegations of wrongdoing have been made.
Aschenbrenner's career has been marked by rapid ascents and abrupt departures. He previously worked for Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX Future Fund and spent time at OpenAI in 2023. At OpenAI, he reportedly raised concerns about potential Chinese espionage and criticized the company's security protocols, leading to his eventual departure. He claimed he was fired for sharing information considered sensitive, while OpenAI disputed his account, stating he was not dismissed for security concerns.
Aschenbrenner, who entered Columbia University at 15 and graduated at 19, became involved in the effective altruism movement, which focuses on catastrophic risks from advanced AI. He published a 165-page manifesto in 2024 predicting the arrival of superintelligent AI and its potential to usher in a volatile period in human history, a thesis that informed his investment strategy.