New York Yankees pitcher Cam Schlittler's early season dominance has positioned him as a leading contender for the American League Cy Young award, but recent performance has led some analysts to suggest a strategic betting opportunity.
Schlittler, who was once a 100/1 longshot to win the award, became the favorite after a strong start to the season. Through his first 12 starts, he compiled a 9-3 record with a 1.50 earned run average (ERA). This performance shifted his odds considerably, with some outlets listing him as a -125 favorite entering his most recent outings.
However, Schlittler has experienced a downturn in June, a trend that has unfortunately affected the Yankees team overall. In his last two starts, he allowed 10 runs in nine innings. A third recent outing against the Guardians earlier in June also contributed to a rougher month, as he surrendered more runs in those three games than he did between March and May.
"It took me 30-plus starts to finally get my teeth kicked in," Schlittler was quoted as saying after a loss where he gave up a career-high four home runs. "There are lessons to be learned from this."
Despite these recent struggles, data suggests Schlittler's strong early-season performance still warrants his frontrunner status for the Cy Young. As of Wednesday's games, he was listed at +115 odds, with Dylan Cease at +325 and Drew Rasmussen at +700. The remaining contenders were at 17/1 or longer.
Schlittler's ERA has risen to 2.08 from 1.50 but still leads the American League. He also leads AL pitchers in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with a 3.6 mark, ranks second in WHIP (0.962), and second in strikeouts with 123. Advanced metrics such as his expected ERA (xERA) of 3.12 and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .277 are only slightly higher than those of his closest competitors.
Betting analysts suggest that these past few games may be an anomaly, given the strong body of work Schlittler has demonstrated throughout the season. From a value perspective, it is unlikely that Schlittler's odds will remain significantly high unless his performance continues to decline. If he rebounds or even sustains a middle-ground performance in the second half, his overall season achievements may keep him as the favorite.
One betting strategy proposed is to "buy the dip," with an analyst recommending placing a bet on Schlittler at +145 odds, considering it a potential low point before his stock rises again. This approach is based on the belief that his earlier performance indicates he is a legitimate Cy Young candidate whose recent struggles are temporary.