A supercomputer has predicted Spain to win the FIFA World Cup, with a 26.1% probability. The model, developed by scientists at the University of Liverpool, ran 1,000 simulations to forecast match outcomes and determine each nation's chances of winning the tournament.
England is projected to be the second-most likely winner at 17%, followed by France (13.5%), Argentina (12.4%), and Portugal (10.6%). The supercomputer identified Norway as a potential dark horse, with a 3.6% chance of winning the trophy. "Whilst our model agrees with the bookmakers in making Spain the favourites, Norway emerge as the standout dark horse," said Dr. Benjamin Holmes.
The supercomputer utilizes advanced machine learning technologies to predict match results, considering not only the quality of individual players but also their potential interactions on the field. This model has a proven track record, having previously predicted England's second-place finish in Euro 2024.
"Since Euro 2024, we have expanded our simulation model with a host of new features," Dr. Holmes explained. "The core idea remains the same: estimating the abilities of players and how they interact with each other and their opponents. We have now added simulations of injuries, suspensions and who scores the goals. We even model the playing conditions, capturing the weather and altitude that matter so much in this year's expansive tournament across three host countries."
The model also forecasts England to win their group, potentially facing DR Congo, Mexico, Brazil, and Portugal in subsequent rounds, before a possible final against Spain.
Golden Boot Prediction
For the coveted Golden Boot, awarded to the tournament's top scorer, the supercomputer favors Norway's Erling Haaland, giving him a 19% probability of winning. Spain's Mikel Oyarzabal is a close second with a 16.4% chance. Other contenders include Harry Kane (12.2%) and Kylian Mbappe (11.9%).
These predictions align with earlier calculations by experts from the University of Innsbruck. Their analysis also identified Spain as the favorite, with a 14.5% chance of winning, closely followed by England (12.4%) and France (12.4%).
"Compared to previous tournaments, this year's title race is very tight," noted co-lead author Achim Zeileis. Andreas Groll of TU Dortmund University added that the probability of the top favorite winning is typically no more than 20%, indicating a significant chance for other teams.