The strategic use of substitutions in the final moments of World Cup matches, specifically for penalty shootouts, has yielded varied outcomes throughout the tournament's history. While it might seem a tactical advantage, the data suggests a narrow margin of success for players brought on solely for this purpose.
Analysis of World Cup penalty shootouts indicates that only a small number of players have entered the game in the final five minutes of injury time with the specific intention of taking a penalty. Of these, very few have gone on to score. In the 2022 final, Paulo Dybala was substituted in injury time and subsequently scored his penalty in Argentina's victory over France.
Conversely, the 2022 round of 16 match between Morocco and Spain saw both teams bring on players, Badr Benoun for Morocco and Pablo Sarabia for Spain, in the final two minutes. Both players missed their subsequent penalties.
England's Jamie Carragher experienced a unique situation in the 2006 quarter-final against Portugal. He entered the match with two minutes remaining and, although he initially scored his penalty, he was required to retake it as the whistle had not yet been blown. His retaken shot was saved by Portuguese goalkeeper Ricardo.
Further back, in 1986, West Germany's Pierre Littbarski scored a penalty after coming on as a late substitute in a quarter-final win against Mexico.
One notable instance of a goalkeeper being brought on specifically for a shootout occurred in the 2014 quarter-finals when Netherlands coach Louis van Gaal replaced Jasper Cillessen with Tim Krul in the 121st minute against Costa Rica. Krul went on to save two penalties, securing a win for his team. However, in the subsequent semi-final penalty shootout, Krul remained an unused substitute, and the Netherlands were eliminated when Cillessen did not save any kicks.
These instances highlight the unpredictable nature of penalty shootouts, where even carefully planned tactical substitutions may not guarantee success.