The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are set to feature a compelling pitching duel Thursday night as right-handers Paul Skenes and Hunter Greene take the mound. While both pitchers are considered top arms with Cy Young potential, their recent performances have led to a projection of a lower-scoring game.
The Pirates, currently at a .500 record of 55-55, are navigating a season of incremental progress. Skenes, a key part of their future, has a 9-9 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this season. Despite these numbers being among the best in the league, he has experienced a tougher September, allowing 17 earned runs in 27.2 innings. His previous two starts against the Reds this season resulted in five earned runs over 10 innings.
The Reds, who made the postseason last year, have taken a step back in 2025. After a strong start to the season, the team's performance has faltered, though they have shown signs of life since the All-Star Break, going 8-5 in the second half. Greene, another promising young pitcher, has struggled since rejoining the rotation in early July, surrendering 17 earned runs in 21.2 innings. His starts have been polarizing, with two quality outings contrasted by two significantly weaker performances. Pirates hitters have a .200 batting average against him in 55 at-bats.
Given the recent struggles of both pitchers and the Pirates' overall inconsistent play, coupled with the Reds' home record of 24-30, the betting consensus favors the under eight total runs for the game. Both teams are aware of the significance of this matchup, and the expectation is that both Skenes and Greene will prioritize limiting scoring opportunities to give their respective teams a chance to win.